My Prediction For 2009

My only prediction for 2009 is that your prediction is wrong. Yes, that’s right. I predict that your prediction won’t come true.

We love predictions.  I can’t figure out why because 99% of the predictions I hear never come to be. About a year ago I was at an event that featured an economic forecast by Brian Wesbury.  I like Brian.  He’s informative, optimistic about the future, and he’s a great speaker.  His speech was loaded with some intriguing economic insight, but the one point I remember more than anything else was his prediction that the Dow would reach 15,000 by the end of 2008.  You know the rest of the story.

I left that event with some excitement.  Why was I excited?  Because I liked Brian’s forecast, and I wanted to believe it was going to happen.  Brian is an expert on the economy, and his forecast was exactly what I wanted to happen.  The problem: we must learn to EXPECT ANYTHING in spite of what we want to see happen.

I often have people ask me what I think will happen.  Their question is usually within the context of a very short time frame (a year or less).  I don’t make precise short-term predictions or economic forecasts, because I know I’ll be wrong.  Instead, I try to focus on what’s knowable and important.  My short term predictions really wouldn’t even matter because our firm has a long-term approach to our investment philosophy.

Apparently I’m not the only one who liked Brian.  They have invited him back again this year.  I can’t wait to hear his prediciton:)


  1. […] 10 economic forecasters. This is interesting because all of the talk before lunch today was about how wrong Brian’s prediction was one year ago. Last year at this time Brian predicted that the Dow would end the year at 15,000. I […]

  2. […] Predicting when things will get better is worthless, no one knows.  Its better to stay the course, the rewards will come in due time. […]

  3. […] market will either be up or it will be down…your guess is just as likely to be right as ours. Predicting when things will get better is worthless because nobody knows. What we do know is that the economy doesn’t usually turn until after the stock market […]

  4. […] today, I can’t predict that the market has bottomed, or that we’re anywhere close to being on our way to recovery.  But […]

  5. Monday Links says:

    […] “Russell’s Rule. Be wary of the analyst who has been correct on the market over the years. He is coming ever-closer to being terribly wrong. Keep an eye on the smart analyst who has been wrong over the years. He is about to make a great call. There are no geniuses on Wall Street, ‘only geniuses for a while.’” – Richard Russell. By the way, in case you missed it, here’s my prediction for 2009. […]

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