Are Recession Fears Just Hype? – Weekly Update for February 16, 2016

Image courtesy of FreeDigitalPhotos.net/pat138241

Image courtesy of FreeDigitalPhotos.net/pat138241

Markets ended another volatile week lower despite a bounce in oil prices. For the week, the S&P 500 lost 0.81%, the Dow fell 1.43%, and the NASDAQ dropped 0.59%.[i]

Amid volatile stock prices and disappointing global economic news, you may have heard a lot of chatter on media networks about whether the U.S. economy is facing another recession. In this week’s market update, we wanted to share our views.

Why is there so much talk about a recession?

With oil prices barreling below $27 amid a global slowdown, a lot of financial commentators are talking more seriously about the potential for a U.S. recession.[ii] These recession fears are not baseless and we’re taking them seriously.

Predicting a recession is always a difficult exercise because it relies on balancing positive and negative indicators, many of which are based on old data. We heard from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen last week that the Fed sees a mixed economic picture ahead. She further warned that the U.S. economy could feel the effects of economic turmoil abroad.[iii] Though Fed economists aren’t currently worried about a recession, you can bet that they are taking a close look at potential recession triggers. What are they looking at?[iv]

  • Continued weakness in oil and commodity prices that are hurting energy producers.
  • Emerging market issues (particularly in China) that affect exports and U.S. firms.
  • Falling demand in the manufacturing sector.
  • Worries that central banks are out of bullets.

So, what’s the good news?

Despite all the doom and gloom in markets right now, the U.S. economy is not lying down and giving up. Here are a few of the things experts see in the pro-growth column: [v]

  • The economy is approaching full employment and employers are still hiring.
  • Wages are increasing, Americans are taking home bigger paychecks, and household savings are growing.
  • Consumers are still spending money on big-ticket items like electronics and motor vehicles.[vi]
  • S. exports to Brazil, Russia, India, and China — four of the largest emerging markets — totaled just 1.14% of U.S. GDP in 2014. That’s a drop in the bucket of total economic activity.[vii]

Will the economy slide into recession in 2016?

We don’t know, but we do know that recessions don’t just happen for no reason. As Yellen put it in her remarks to Congress: “The evidence suggests that expansions don’t die of old age.”[viii] In short, something has to happen to cause a recession and the Fed doesn’t see anything on the horizon yet.

That’s not to say that the economic picture is rosy. Economists are not predicting breakout growth in 2016. However, they’re also not predicting a recession. The Wall Street Journal forecasts first-quarter 2016 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.0%.[ix] The Atlanta Fed is more optimistic, predicting 2.7% growth.[x]

However, recession risk is rising; the latest Wall Street poll of economists put the risk of a recession in the next 12 months at 21%, double where it was in June.[xi] However, the same poll reported recession probabilities of 16% in January 2011 and 17% in January 2012.[xii] Neither year ushered in a recession. The reality is that we won’t know when a recession starts or ends until it has already happened, and there is no way to predict it with any certainty.

Our View

2016 has been a very rocky road for equities, and the volatility is likely to stick with us for a while. Bad news has dominated markets for weeks and we don’t know when sentiment will swing the other way. However, let’s remember that the current correction is coming after years of sustained growth.

We’re keeping a close eye on economic and market fundamentals and making investment decisions based on our analysis as well as our clients’ individual situations. We know that corrections are uncomfortable and that you may have questions about the economy and how it may affect your portfolio. If you have questions or concerns, please reach out to us directly, we’d be happy to talk to you.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Monday: U.S. Markets Closed for Presidents Day Holiday

Tuesday: Empire State Mfg. Survey, Housing Market Index, Treasury International Capital

Wednesday: Housing Starts, PPI-FD, Industrial Production, FOMC Minutes

Thursday: Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, EIA Petroleum Status Report

Friday: Consumer Price Index

021616

HEADLINES:

Supreme Court Justice Scalia passes away. The conservative justice’s death leaves a gap in the nation’s highest court and ups the stakes in this year’s presidential election. It is not clear whether it will be President Obama or his successor who will nominate the next justice.[xiii]

Retail sales rise more than expected. Consumers spent more than forecasted in January across many categories of goods, easing fears about consumer spending this year.[xiv]

Consumer sentiment drops. Worries about the economy took their toll on a measure of consumer optimism though long-term prospects remain stable.[xv]

Chinese exports slump in January. China’s exports – a major driver of the economy – dropped 11.2% from the previous January. The fall was larger than forecast and highlights China’s growing economic woes.[xvi]

[i] http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=01&b=8&c=2016&d=01&e=12&f=2016&g=d

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?a=01&b=8&c=2016&d=01&e=12&f=2016&g=d&s=DOW%2C+&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?a=01&b=8&c=2016&d=01&e=12&f=2016&g=d&s=%5EIXIC%2C+&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?a=01&b=1&c=2016&d=01&e=5&f=2016&g=d&s=%5EDJI%2C+&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?a=01&b=1&c=2016&d=01&e=5&f=2016&g=d&s=%5EIXIC%2C+&ql=1

[ii] http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/11/investing/oil-price-crash/

[iii] http://fortune.com/2016/02/10/yellen-economy-congress-federal-reserve/

[iv] http://fortune.com/2016/02/11/recession/

[v] http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/14/fed-ecb-pboc-need-to-be-cheerleaders-for-their-economies.html

[vi] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKCN0VL1CT

[vii] https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/2015pr/12/exh4as.xls

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD

[viii] http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/11/fed-chair-yellen-theres-always-some-chance-of-recession.html

[ix] http://projects.wsj.com/econforecast/#ind=gdp&r=20

[x] https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1

https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/Documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/GDPTrackingModelDataAndForecasts.xlsx?la=en

[xi] http://projects.wsj.com/econforecast/#qa=20160201002

[xii] http://projects.wsj.com/econforecast/#e=52&ind=recession&r=60

[xiii] http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/13/politics/antonin-scalia-supreme-court-replacement/

[xiv] http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/02/12/retail-sales-rose-more-than-expected-in-january.html

[xv] http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/02/12/consumer-sentiment-dips-in-february.html

[xvi] http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/14/china-releases-trade-data-for-january-yuan-denominated-and-us-dollar-imports-and-exports.html

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