Current Events Cause Rates to Remain – Weekly Update for September 26, 2016

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Stocks rallied again last week after the Federal Reserve voted not to raise interest rates this month. While few expected the Fed to act last week, official statements suggest the path to higher rates looks clearer. For the week, the the S&P 500 gained 1.19%, the Dow grew 0.76%, the NASDAQ added 1.17%, and the MSCI EAFE stayed stable.

Let’s dig more deeply into the Fed’s recent statements. The Fed cited continued strength in the labor market, economic growth, and better wage growth in its case for higher interest rates. However, tepid inflation (largely due to lower energy prices) and a desire to get the timing right caused most of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to vote to hold rates steady.

Three members of the FOMC dissented from the majority vote, believing that the Fed should have raised interest rates this month. One dissident, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, believes that the labor market could overheat in 2017, potentially derailing the economic recovery if action isn’t taken.

An overheating labor market could send wages to unsustainably high levels while productivity (output per worker per hour) falls. While higher wages might sound pretty good to American workers, unsustainable labor market trends could lead to the sharp recessionary contraction economists want to avoid. However, the health of the labor market doesn’t boil down to a single measure of unemployment, and the rest of the committee seems to believe that raising interest rates too soon is riskier than potentially raising them too late.

The market appears to agree, and investors see the Fed reinforcing the idea that the economy still has room to grow. At least one Wall Street analyst believes we’re in the “sixth or seventh inning of a nine inning game.” Despite the Fed’s increasingly hawkish tone about raising interest rates, Wall Street isn’t fully convinced the central bank will pull the trigger in December. Though the FOMC will meet again in November, the Fed is unlikely to make a move until after the election. The latest estimate of trading interest shows that traders view the odds of higher rates in December at 54.2%.

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The Fed has worked hard to convince the public that it intends to raise rates soon. Why? One of the tools the central bank can use to affect markets is that of its “bully pulpit,” the leverage of its powerful position. In the past, the Fed has used the bully pulpit to sound the warning about irrational market highs and give Americans plenty of notice about future policy moves. The Fed hopes that telegraphing plays will give markets time to digest the news and avoid a shock.

This week, Monday’s presidential debate and a key meeting of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members could lead to more market volatility. Oil prices have been a major driver of market movements this year and movement toward freezing production (thereby reducing the supply glut that is contributing to low prices) would cause volatility. How likely is a coordinated production freeze? Not very likely since it would require historic cooperation between geopolitical opponents such as Saudi Arabia and Iran. We’ll keep you informed.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Monday: New Home Sales, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer Confidence

Wednesday: Durable Goods Orders, EIA Petroleum Status Report

Thursday: GDP, International Trade in Goods, Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales Index

Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment

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HEADLINES:

Housing starts fall more than expected. Groundbreaking on new houses fell 5.8% in August as building activity declined broadly after increasing this summer. However, a rebound in permits for new houses suggests housing demand may strengthen.

Existing home sales fall for second straight month. Home resales fell in August, dinged by a shortage of housing inventory on the market. Growth in home prices is outpacing wage growth, weighing on sales activity.

Weekly jobless claims fall. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 8,000 to a two-month low last week. Continued labor market growth could give the Fed the green light to raise interest rates in December.

Manufacturing gauge drops to three-month low. A measure of manufacturing activity slipped in September as weakness in new orders and a strong dollar weighed on demand. New orders rose at the slowest rate this year and hiring was slow.

A Volatile Market Waiting for Answers – Weekly Update for September 19, 2016

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Volatility picked up last week due to pressures from lower oil prices and speculation about the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next rate hike. This summer has been historically calm for markets, leading markets to trade without big intraday gains or losses. However, Friday broke that streak, possibly ushering in a period of greater volatility as uncertainty looms. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.53%, the Dow grew 0.21%, the NASDAQ added 2.31%, but the MSCI EAFE dropped 2.49%.

With mixed information and an uncertain political landscape, the market is facing a dilemma. On the one hand, economic data is neither weak nor strong enough to make policymakers’ choice easy on whether they should raise interest rates. On the other hand, the unpredictable nature of the presidential race contributes to market volatility. We’ve discussed throughout the race that it is not the result of the election that cause volatility, but rather the uncertainty leading up to the ultimate vote. All in all, Fed economists have repeatedly stated their intentions to raise rates soon, though no one is certain about the timing of this hike.

The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee will meet this week to decide whether or not to raise interest rates for the first time since December 2015. The Fed has a dual mandate: to maximize employment and keep inflation stable. Headline unemployment is below the Fed’s target of 5.0%, but inflation has remained stubbornly below the Fed’s long-run goal of 2.0%.

Fresh inflation data suggests a warmer trend. Two measures of inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator, rose in recent months, indicating that the economy is getting closer to the Fed’s target. While the increase in inflation might give pro-hike Fed economists ammunition at this week’s meeting, many analysts still don’t think the Fed will immediately raise rates.

Markets have been pushing new highs recently, and it wouldn’t surprise us to see a return to a volatile pattern in the days and weeks ahead. Uncertainty around economic growth, the November elections, Federal Reserve activity, and a future British exit from the EU could cause investors to become more cautious in the weeks ahead. We’ll be closely monitoring the overall market climate and will be in touch if we feel any prudent changes to investment strategies are necessary.

As always, we want to be sure to focus on long-term investing especially when there are brief ups and downs in the market. Please reach out to us by leaving a comment, emailing (hello@hzcapital.com) or giving us a call at 419-425-2400 if you have any questions about your portfolio. We’d love to connect with you and chat about how current events impact the market as a whole. Thanks for reading!

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Monday: Housing Market Index

Tuesday: Housing Starts

Wednesday: EIA Petroleum Status Report, FOMC Meeting Announcement, Fed Chair Press Conference

Thursday: Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales

Friday: PMI Manufacturing Index Flash

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HEADLINES:

Consumer sentiment steady in September. A measure of how Americans feel about the economy and their financial prospects remained unchanged between August and September, suggesting households remain upbeat heading into fall.

Retail sales fall unexpectedly. U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in August on weak sales of autos.

Industrial production falls in August. Production in U.S. factories fell 0.4% last month amid a drop in demand for appliances, electronics, and machinery. Cooling demand for big-ticket items could spell trouble this quarter.

Weekly jobless claims rise less than expected. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose last week, but increased less than economists expected.

Special September 2016 Market Update Video

In this video:

  • Tony gives an update on market related news over the last month
  • Discusses investing and politics
  • Discusses the power consumer spending and small businesses have on the overall economy.

Also, stay tuned to the end for a special profile interview with Dr. Greg Arnette, the owner of the local coffee shop We Serve. Coffee, located in downtown Findlay, Ohio.

Thanks for watching!

Interest Rate Debate: The Fed’s Decision is Nearing – Weekly Update for September 12, 2016

blog-post-2016-09-12Monetary policy was at the forefront of investors’ minds last week as we all continue to calculate the odds of an interest rate increase at this month’s Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. After trading flat for most of the week, stocks sank Friday on fears of the future rate hike. For the week, the S&P 500 lost 2.39%, the Dow fell 2.20%, the NASDAQ dropped 2.36%, and the MSCI EAFE lost 0.16%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) declined to increase its stimulus program, voting to stand pat on interest rates and current bond-buying activity. The decision wasn’t a total surprise as the Eurozone economy has proved resilient after Britain voted to exit the EU. However, the ECB did confirm that it will consider further quantitative easing in 2017 if conditions worsen. No exit date for Britain has been announced, though the new prime minister has indicated it will not begin before next year.

On our side of the Atlantic, surprise comments by a voting member of the Fed increased speculation that a rate hike may come this month. When markets are quiet, even rumors can be enough to spark a selloff. In previous weeks, Fed officials have ramped up hawkish rhetoric, suggesting sentiment that the Fed is moving toward a rate hike. Even reliably dovish officials, who have historically maintained a cautious stance, are showing interest in raising rates again.

We have now entered the quiet period before the FOMC meets September 20th, meaning we won’t get more statements from Fed officials before they vote on monetary policy. The information blackout will give investors plenty of spare time to digest previous statements and come to grips with the idea that the Fed is serious about raising rates this year.

All the speculation around the Fed’s increasing assertiveness about rates had a palpable effect on markets, which may be what the Fed wants to achieve. The chart below shows Wall Street trading probabilities of higher interest rates in coming months.

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On Thursday, traders put the odds of a September hike at just 18.0%. By the close of trading on Friday, the odds had surged to 24.0%. The odds of a December hike had been about even; now, traders seem to believe the Fed will raise rates again this year.

Is last week’s pullback a minor blip? We can’t know for certain, but investors should prepare for a bumpy ride this fall.

The week ahead is packed with economic data, including critical reports on business inventories. Positive data could contrarily cause further selling if investors believe it could spur the Fed to act. Negative data might likewise be greeted with cheers. As we move to a Fed vote and uncertainty around the November election peaks, markets are likely to remain volatile and perhaps even move into a more prolonged selloff. Ultimately, we want to focus on investing for the long term, and encourage you to tune out the media “noise” as volatility occurs. We’ll be sure to keep you updated on the latest.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Tuesday: Treasury Budget

Wednesday: Import and Export Prices, EIA Petroleum Status Report

Thursday: Jobless Claims, PPI-FD, Retail Sales, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Industrial Production, Business Inventories

Friday: Consumer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment, Treasury International Capital

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HEADLINES:

Fed Beige Book shows wage gains restricted to skilled workers. A key report released by the Federal Reserve showed that the economy grew modestly in July and August. However, data shows that most wage gains occurred only in skilled jobs where employers are struggling to find qualified workers.

Weekly jobless claims drop. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell unexpectedly last week, marking the 79th straight week that claims remained below the key 300,000 level associated with a healthy labor market.

Monthly job openings increased in July. The number of available jobs, a data point closely watched by Federal Reserve economists, increased by 3.9% In addition, the hiring rate rose by 3.6%, pointing to a strong labor market.

Gas prices slide after summer. The summer driving season is over and falling gas prices might slip further this winter. Americans enjoyed the cheapest summer gas since 2004, and economists hope the “gas dividend” will boost spending this quarter.

Interest Rate Uncertainty after August Jobs Report – Weekly Update for September 6, 2016

blog-09-06-16After losing steam the previous week, stocks rose last week as investors cheered a weak jobs report and the declining probability of a September interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.50%, the Dow grew 0.52%, the NASDAQ added 0.59%, and the MSCI EAFE grew 0.44%.

The August job report showed that the economy gained 151,000 new jobs instead of the 180,000 jobs predicted by economists. Since investors are keenly watching the odds of a rate hike ahead of the mid-September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, they treated the jobs miss as a win since it might reduce the chance of a rate hike this month.

However, investors might be cheering too early since there’s still the possibility the Fed might act. The August employment report is notoriously unreliable due to the effects of seasonal labor, which often peaks in the summer. Since 2011, August job gains have undershot estimates by about 49,000 and have been revised upward by an average of 71,000 jobs over the following months.

If enough Fed economists see the August numbers as a seasonal aberration, they may use June/July numbers to determine that the economy is strong enough to weather another rate hike. However, despite Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s hawkish tone, some experts don’t believe the Fed will act until December at the earliest.

There is also the November election to consider; historically, the Fed tends to choose the more cautious path when facing a close call. One expert pegs the odds of a September hike at 55% and a December hike at 80%. Overall, Wall Street traders are less confident of a September hike, assigning just a one-in-four chance of a rate increase.

Digging deeper into the August numbers, we see that the headline unemployment rate remained at 4.9%, and a broader measure of unemployment, which also includes discouraged and underemployed workers, also remained unchanged at 9.7%. Wage growth also slowed; hourly wages rose just three cents, increasing just 2.4% over the previous 12 months.

Though overall wage gains are slow, different sectors show different stories. Employees in high-demand tech jobs saw their wages go up 4.3% over a year go. Even restaurant and hotel employees are experiencing year-over-year wage gains of 3.9%.

Our View

All told, the August jobs report paints a mixed picture of the economy. New jobs are still being created at a respectable clip and represent a strong tailwind in the third quarter. However, the pace of jobs growth may be waning, which is a concern. Furthermore, the pace of wage growth is also slow and may represent a divide between the workers who are fully experiencing the benefits of an economy close to full employment, and those who are being left behind.

As attention focuses on the Fed’s September meeting, we expect to see further volatility. However, the fact that the Fed is seriously contemplating a rate hike this fall suggests policymakers believe in the underlying strength of the economy. That’s great news.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Monday: U.S. markets closed for Labor Day Holiday

Tuesday: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

Wednesday: JOLTS, Beige Book

Thursday: Jobless Claims, EIA Petroleum Status Report

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HEADLINES:

Consumer confidence surges. A measure of how confident Americans feel about the economy rose to its highest level in nearly a year, suggesting that consumer spending may support growth this quarter.

Auto sales remain brisk. Sales of U.S. cars and trucks were still healthy in August, but lagging activity at Ford and GM made analysts worry that total volume is declining from its blistering 2015 pace.

Factory orders up in July. Orders to U.S. manufacturers rose to the highest level in nine months in July. However, much of the increase was due to volatile orders for aircraft, indicating the surge may be temporary.

Mortgage applications up 2.8%. Overall mortgage applications were up last week as interest rates remained stable. However, refinancing activity should be higher given rates near record lows.

LIBOR Surge May Rule Out September Fed Rate Hike – Weekly Update for August 29, 2016

LIBOR Surge May Rule Out A Fed Rate Hike

After rallying for weeks, the major indexes fell last week ahead of key remarks by Federal Reserve officials and turbulence in money markets.[i] For the week, the S&P 500 lost 0.68%, the Dow fell 0.85%, the NASDAQ dropped 0.37%, while the MSCI EAFE gained 0.16%.[ii]

Even as the Fed has kept interest rates flat, an unexpected surge in short-term interest rates triggered by an industry rule change is potentially doing some of the Fed’s work for it. If you ever tune in to the financial news, you may have heard the term LIBOR (pronounced LIE-bor) mentioned in reference to money markets (what we call the trade of short-term loans between banks and other financial institutions).

LIBOR, the London Interbank Offered Rate, is a benchmark used for a vast range of debt, including mortgages and corporate loans. Recently, the three-month LIBOR (the rate charged for lending dollars for three months) has reached multi-year highs (rising more than 30% since this June), tightening credit conditions without any action by the Fed.[iii]

Why should you care about LIBOR? Well, since you’re not a bank, LIBOR may not directly impact your life. However, since it’s tied to an estimated $300 trillion in global financial securities like corporate bonds and mortgages, it definitely affects your personal bottom line.[iv]

Even when the Fed holds rates steady, other events can impact the interest rates we see. Restructuring related to a money market rule change is causing interest rates to rise, making it more expensive for institutions to lend to each other (and to borrowers like us).

In terms of overall impact, LIBOR’s recent spike has the equivalent impact of a small (25 basis point) rate hike by the Fed.[v] While there’s no telling how long the surge in rates will last, some analysts think that the money market turbulence will be enough to rule out an interest rate increase when the Fed meets in September.[vi]

However, there are also larger stability issues the Fed has to consider. Even if a short-term rise in interest rates reduces the immediate need to raise rates, the Fed is charged with maintaining long-term stability, and may choose to act anyway.

The latest data on economic growth proved to be a disappointment. The second estimate of Gross Domestic Product growth showed that the economy grew a tepid 1.1%, trimming the previous estimate of 1.2%. While consumer spending was revised upward, businesses pulled back their spending significantly, putting the brakes on growth.[vii] Will the disappointing economic growth stave off a September rate increase? Probably, but we can’t be certain.

Investors are reacting predictably to the uncertainty by holding back and waiting for more information. When trading volume is low, even minor headlines can have an outsized effect on market movements. With the next Federal Open Market Committee Meeting three weeks away, we expect to see additional volatility as investors consider the odds of a new rate hike.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer Confidence

Wednesday: ADP Employment Report, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales Index, EIA Petroleum Status Report

Thursday: Motor Vehicle Sales, Jobless Claims, Productivity and Costs, PMI Manufacturing Index, ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending

Friday: Employment Situation, International Trade, Factory Orders

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HEADLINES:

New home sales skyrocket. Sales of new single-family homes rose unexpectedly in July, reaching their highest level in almost nine years as demand for houses rose.[viii]

Existing home sales tumble. Home resales fell last month for the first time since February as shrinking inventory limited buyer activity. However, as wages and home prices rise, resales will likely pick up later this year.[ix]

Durable goods orders bounce in July. Orders for long-lasting factory goods rebounded last month, indicating the manufacturing sector may be strengthening.[x]

Consumer sentiment slips in August. A gauge of how Americans feel about the economy and their financial prospects fell. A drop in optimism could foretell weaker consumer spending this quarter.[xi]

[i] http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/26/us-markets.html

[ii] http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?period1=1471586400&period2=1472191200&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d

http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history?period1=1471586400&period2=1472191200&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d

http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC/history?period1=1471586400&period2=1472191200&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d

https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search

[iii] http://www.marketwatch.com/story/money-markets-deliver-stealth-tightening-even-as-fed-stands-pat-2016-08-19

http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-moneymarkets-idUSL1N1B70CG

[iv] http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20160621a.htm

[v] http://www.marketwatch.com/story/money-markets-deliver-stealth-tightening-even-as-fed-stands-pat-2016-08-19

[vi] http://www.marketwatch.com/story/money-markets-deliver-stealth-tightening-even-as-fed-stands-pat-2016-08-19

[vii] http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/26/us-q2-gross-domestic-product.html

[viii] http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/08/23/july-new-home-sales-leap-12-4.html

[ix] http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/08/24/existing-home-sales-fall-3-2-in-july.html

[x] http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/08/25/durable-goods-orders-rebound-in-july.html

[xi] http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/08/26/consumer-sentiment-slips-in-august.html

Stocks Going Strong – Weekly Update for August 22, 2016

What is the Fed thinking now-Last week, the NASDAQ posted an eighth straight week of gains for the first time since 2010. Though late last week we saw minor losses in the other major indices, the market has held on strong since its post-Brexit boom. For the week, the S&P 500 lost 0.01%, the Dow fell 0.13%, the NASDAQ gained 0.10%, and the MSCI EAFE lost 0.64%.

With the market’s stellar performance as of late, we can’t help but ask, what is the Fed thinking? Minutes from the July Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting showed that officials are split about the economic outlook and when to raise interest rates. Hawkish rhetoric from Fed members who favor a rate hike soon could push the central bank into raising rates as early as September. More dovish officials aren’t convinced that tepid inflation will rise to the Fed’s 2.0% objective and favor a wait-and-see approach to raising interest rates.

After several months of strong labor market gains, some economists think the economy is close to full employment and central bankers should move soon to put on the brakes by raising interest rates. If the economy gets overheated, prices could rise too much and push the economy into a boom/bust cycle that federal officials are anxious to avoid.

While a few years of outsized growth sounds nice after the years of slow expansion we’ve experienced, the economic consequences that might follow wouldn’t be pleasant at all. That’s why central banks like the Fed act to smooth out these economic cycles by lowering interest rates when times are tough (boosting investment through cheap credit) and raising them when growth picks up again (curbing excessive optimism by making credit more expensive).

The timing of rate increases is tricky, and the macroeconomic relationships that govern these decisions are complex and open to interpretation. This explains why some of the best economists in the world can’t agree on when to pull the trigger.

Which group will win out? Since the Fed has been reluctant to jump the gun on interest rates, we don’t see a rate hike coming next month. However, the Fed might decide to surprise us.

Currently, Wall Street traders judge the odds of a September hike at just 18.0%. However, traders think the Fed is likely to raise interest rates in 2016, judging by December’s rate probabilities. Will the Fed move soon? We’ll keep you informed.

Stocks Going Strong - Weekly Update for August 22, 2016

This week is packed with economic data that will show us how the housing and manufacturing sectors are doing. We’ll also get a second look at second-quarter economic growth in Friday’s Gross Domestic Product report. Stay tuned for next week’s update.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Tuesday: New Home Sales

Wednesday: PMI Manufacturing Index Flash, Existing Home Sales, EIA Petroleum Status Report

Thursday: Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims

Friday: GDP, International Trade in Goods, Corporate Profits, PMI Services Flash, Consumer Sentiment

Stocks Going Strong - Weekly Update for August 22, 2016

Notes: All index returns exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5-year and 10-year returns are annualized. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Treasury.gov. International performance is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Corporate bond performance is represented by the SPUSCIG. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.


HEADLINES:

Inflation remains flat.
Consumer prices remained unchanged in July as gasoline prices fell for the first time in months. Modest inflation may reduce the chances of future interest rate increases by the Fed.

Housing starts surge to five-month high. Groundbreaking on new residential projects rose in July, potentially boosting second-quarter economic growth numbers.

Weekly jobless claims fall. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped last week, suggesting the labor market continues to strengthen and approach full employment.

Industrial production rises more than expected. A measure of industrial sector production (including hard industries like mining, manufacturing, and utilities) increased by 0.7% versus the 0.3% rise expected.

Earnings Drive Record High Close – Weekly Update for August 15, 2016

Earnings Drive Record High Close - Weekly Update for August 15, 2016

Stocks rallied late last week as the S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ all closed at record highs on Thursday for the first time since New Year’s Eve 1999. The NASDAQ also notched a seventh week of gains, its longest winning streak since 2012. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.05%, the Dow grew 0.18%, the NASDAQ added 0.23%, and the MSCI EAFE grew 2.73%.

Earnings season is mostly behind us, and, with nearly all of the S&P 500 companies having reported in, we have a good overall picture of last quarter’s performance. Total earnings for the index so far were down 3.7% on -0.7% lower revenues relative to Q2 2015. However, 71.1% have managed to beat profit expectations, which has given stocks a boost in recent weeks.

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Here’s what we can take away from the second quarter:

Though earnings growth is still negative, it’s a vast improvement over what we saw in the first quarter from the same group of companies. Results are also better than the 4-quarter moving average. Revenue growth is also negative, showing that many companies are still (seven-plus years into the economic recovery) struggling with slow demand.

The energy sector is still bringing down overall earnings. Excluding Energy, earnings for remaining S&P 500 companies would be slightly up 0.1% on 2.4% higher revenues.

Third quarter earnings growth estimates are steadily coming down, indicating that business leaders are not expecting standout performance. Are companies sandbagging expectations to improve the odds of a positive surprise? That’s highly possible. However, we’re not expecting to see meaningful growth pick up this quarter.

Next week, we’ll get a look at notes from the last Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting. We’ll analyze these meeting minutes to get a sense of what the Fed is thinking about the economy and see how different members of the committee are voting. The rest of the week is also full of important economic releases, which could stoke volatility if we see any surprises. When markets experience a sustained rally over a period of weeks, it’s not surprising when investors pause for a breather to reevaluate the data.

Have questions about how all of this data impacts your portfolio as an investor? We’d love to chat with you. Feel free to leave a comment below or reach out to us at hello@hzcapital.com if there is anything you’re curious about. As always, our goal is to make sure you’re informed on the latest economic updates.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Monday: Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Housing Market Index, Treasury International Capital

Tuesday: Consumer Price Index, Housing Starts, Industrial Production

Wednesday: EIA Petroleum Status Report, FOMC Minutes

Thursday: Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

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HEADLINES:

Consumer sentiment increases in August. A measure of American optimism about the economy increased this month, hopefully supporting future consumer spending.

Retail sales remain flat in July. Sales of retail goods remained surprisingly unchanged last month as Americans cut back on purchases, moderating expectations of a surge in consumer spending this quarter.

Business inventories rise slightly in June. Business stockpiles edged higher in June as sales surged, suggesting U.S. firms are having an easier time moving products off shelves.

Job openings edge higher in June. The number of available jobs rose slightly over May, suggesting moderate growth. An increased number of factory job postings could indicate movement in the manufacturing sector.

“Why Does Britain Love Tea So Much?” – August 2016 Market Update Video

In this video, I discuss major events that occurred in July and their impact on the economy and investors. We also discovered that Josh is the king of dad jokes.

When it comes to investing, you are better off ignoring politics and paying attention to the business activity around you. I am grateful to be living in a great country where the future is always better than the past. It’s important for investors to remember that the White House does not drive the direction of the markets over the long term. It’s the great companies of the United States, like Marathon Petroleum Corporation, that drive business activity and, ultimately, stock prices higher over the long term.

Send us an email or give us a call if you have any questions or concerns you would like to discuss with us.

Stocks Bounce After Jobs Blowout – Weekly Update for August 8, 2016

S&P 500 at (1)

Stocks bounced last week, ending sharply higher after a better-than-expected jobs report. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.43%, the Dow rose 0.60%, the NASDAQ added 1.14%, but the MSCI EAFE lost 1.41%.

Among last week’s major events was a shockingly good July jobs report. Last month, the economy added 255,000 new jobs, blowing away expectations of 180,000 jobs. Even better, the gains were broad-based and the labor force participation rate (an area of concern because fewer people in our population were actively participating in the labor force) ticked upward. Overall, not too shabby.

Headline unemployment remained stable at 4.9%, but that single number hides a lot of complexity. We’d like to dig a little deeper. The chart below shows six different measures of unemployment, each slicing the data in a different way.

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The U-6 unemployment rate is the most comprehensive, showing total unemployed, marginally attached workers (discouraged workers and those considered barely employed), and those total employed part time for economic reasons.

You can see that all measures rose during the recession and have been steadily dropping ever since. While headline unemployment (U-3 unemployment in official parlance) stands at 4.9%, U-6 is still at 9.7%, almost two percentage points higher than the pre-recession low of 7.9% achieved in 2006. This indicates that there are many people who haven’t participated fully in the labor market recovery; however, the rate has fallen significantly from the 17.1% high it reached in 2009. All told, most areas of the labor market are still making gains.

Britain’s central bank moved to lower interest rates to fight the Brexit blues. The Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time in nearly seven years and announced an aggressive round of bond purchases to stimulate economic activity. The bank is moving quickly to head off a possible economic blowback from Britain’s vote to exit the European Union.

Will the Federal Reserve raise rates while one of our major trading partners is going the other way? We’ll be sure to keep you updated.

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Tuesday: Productivity and Costs
Wednesday: JOLTS, EIA Petroleum Status Report, Treasury Budget
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Import and Export Prices
Friday: Retail Sales, PPI-FD, Business Inventories, Consumer Sentiment

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HEADLINES:

Motor vehicle sales miss expectations. July sales of cars and trucks by major U.S. automakers slipped as pent-up demand slackened.

Consumer spending increases more than expected. Spending by American consumers rose more than expected in June, suggesting consumption remained strong throughout the second quarter.

Factory orders fall. New orders for manufactured goods fell in June for the second month in a row, though stabilizing business spending offers some hope.

Construction spending falls to one-year low. Spending on construction projects fell in June, suggesting a downward revision to second-quarter economic growth may come.