Schooling College Students about Financial Responsibility

Classrooms at universities and colleges across the nation will open for fall semester in the next couple of months. You might have a child, grandchild, niece or nephew who is all set to spend their semester studying, socializing, and living on their own. You have prepared them for college life by teaching them how to grocery shop, prepare simple meals, and do laundry. Often, however, college students head to school with little knowledge about making a budget and managing money.

A National Student Financial Wellness Study, the first of its kind released in 2015 by Ohio State University, showed college students’ biggest worries were not exams or terrible roommates. Their biggest worries revolved around money. A little more than 72% of the students surveyed said they felt stressed about personal finances, monthly expenses, or whether they would be able to pay for college at all.

A 2016 survey found that among college students surveyed, 71% said they learned about money management from their parents. So take a few minutes and sit down with your college student today and share these tips. Your advice could help them not only during their college days but throughout their lives.

Financial Advice for Your College-Bound Students

  1. Help your college student set up necessary accounts. College students likely will need at least checking and savings accounts. Start teaching them good habits now and ask them to research banking institutions that would be convenient for them to get to from campus or their residence.
  2. Establish clear financial responsibilities. Determine who will be responsible for which expenses. If you are planning to take care of bills such as auto and health insurance, or cell service, be clear with your student that he or she is responsible for living expenses including rent, utilities, groceries, and other household costs.
  3. Wean them off your bank accounts. It might be tempting to continue paying your child’s, grandchild’s or niece’s or nephew’s expenses to help them get a strong start, but that does not teach them to be self-sufficient; it is likely to make them more dependent on you.
  4. Decide whether a credit card is appropriate. Credit cards often give college students the most trouble. Credit cards are an effective way to establish early credit history, but it is common for students to run up balances without fully understanding how credit cards work. If your student gets a credit card, be sure they understand how credit cards work and how important it is to pay off the balance every month.
  5. Will your college-bound student work during college? Holding down a part-time job while going to school has plenty of advantages. It helps cover living expenses or it gives them a chunk of money to save each month. It also makes it easier for them to manage money and gain valuable work experience. And finally, it looks great on their resume after they graduate and go looking for a job in their field.

It is never too late to sit down with your college-bound child, grandchild, niece or nephew and talk frankly with them about the importance of being financially responsible.

We are here to help you each step of the way, so please let us know if you have any questions about these tips or the bigger strategies that are helping guide you to your financial future.

 

Women and Investing

Preparing for the future is one of the most important aspects of financial strategizing, and a lack of involvement often leaves women, in particular, potentially exposed to financial hardships later in life.

Don’t expect a spouse, partner, or other family member to help ensure financial security.

Women investors face several challenges to helping build wealth and helping secure their financial futures, and should take an active role in their financial future, long-term goals, and financial health.

As they face these responsibilities, women investors face special challenges that make financial literacy and advanced strategizing especially important.

For example, women are more likely to outlive their husbands or have divorce disproportionately affect them, making long-term financial strategies especially critical. Consider these facts:

Women face certain obstacles in investing and handling their financial lives. Ideally, women should take time to acknowledge and explore these challenges with their families and trusted financial professionals.

Determining the right solutions to these unique financial situations is critical. That way, women can have a more effective long-term strategy and can pursue a comfortable, more secure retirement. While every woman and every family is different, research shows that American women face many of the following hindrances:

  • 60% of women worry about having enough money throughout retirement.
  • 65% of women are less likely to talk to their partners about investment ideas than other topics.
  • 47% of women feel comfortable talking with a financial professional about money and investing.
  • 21% of women do not know if their workplace retirement plan providers offer financial guidance.
  • 53% of women are not confident enough to talk to financial professionals on their own.

Engage your partner, spouse, or other family members in regular discussions about money. This way, everyone is kept informed of important financial strategies and future goals.

These discussions don’t have to revolve around worst-case scenarios. A fun activity can be to dream together about future goals or retirement strategies.

Additionally, to help foster financial wellness in future generations, we encourage parents to bring their children into the conversation. Ideally, they will openly talk about and understand the family legacy and estate plans.

We are here to help you each step of the way, so please let us know if you have any questions about these tips or the bigger strategies that are helping guide you to your financial future.

You can get more information and tips by clicking the button below, and downloading our Women and Investing Guidebook! Be sure to check your inbox for the guide.

Market Volatility Returns – Weekly Update for July 3, 2017

As Q2 ended, markets hit a six-week volatility high. While the tech sector declined during the week, consumer discretionary and industrial sectors drove stocks higher on Friday. On Friday, the tech-heavy NASDAQ slumped 1.99%. The S&P fell 0.61% and the DOW dropped 0.21%. Globally, the MSCI EAFE declined 0.32%, and European markets and most of the Asian markets finished the week down.

The Fed reported during the week that the largest U.S. banks passed the stress test evaluating their financial soundness. The test results indicate that banks have the capital structures to withstand difficult economic times. In addition, the results gave banks a green light to pay shareholders dividends and engage in share buybacks.

 Other Market News

  • Q1 Gross Domestic Product Numbers Go Up: The Q1 GDP estimate improved to 1.4% on an annualized basis. Previous estimates were 1.2% and 0.7%. Consumer spending was also revised upward to 1.1% from previous estimates of 0.6% and 0.3%.
  • Durable Goods Orders Fall: Weakening commercial aircraft sales contributed to a 1.1% fall in May’s durable goods orders. Core capital goods also fell 0.2%, surprising expectations for a 0.5% increase.
  • Consumer Confidence and Sentiment Rise: Consumer confidence exceeded expectations by 2 points in June as individuals who reported that jobs are difficult to find fell by 0.3%. The Consumer Sentiment Index rebounded in the second half of June to 95.1, but remains less than May’s 97.1 reading.
  • Pending Home Sales Weaken: Despite an expected 0.5% gain, pending home sales dropped 0.8% in May. The 3-month run of slowing sales suggests a weakening housing sector.
  • Home Price Index Softens: The Home Price Index fell from an annual increase of 5.9% to 5.7% year-over-year. This index reflects monthly changes in housing prices over 20 metropolitan regions. San Francisco, Boston, and Cleveland all reported lower housing price data.
  • Oil Prices Climb: Although oil prices ended last Friday at $46.04 a barrel, oil closed the first-half of the year down 14%, its weakest performance since 1998. Ongoing concerns about an oversupplied market continue to influence investors despite a dip in U.S. production slowing the bearish outlook.
  • Import/Export Data Modestly Brightens: Imported goods dropped to $193 billion and exports improved to $127.1 billion in May. While the $65.9 billion difference remains significant, this quarter’s goods gap is averaging $66.5 billion a month.
  • The Dollar Drops: Though marginally recovering on Friday, the U.S. dollar reported its largest quarterly decline in almost 7 years against other major currencies.

The Week Ahead

U.S. markets close on Tuesday for the July 4th holiday. During the shortened trading week, the markets will look at manufacturing indices, motor vehicle sales, and employment data reports. As the data becomes available, investors will focus on how Q2 numbers roll out and what might be developing for the rest of the year.

As you reflect on this data and the week ahead, feel free to contact us should questions arise. We are here to serve your complete financial goals and help you navigate your investing choices.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Monday: ISM Manufacturing Index, PMI Manufacturing Index, Motor Vehicle Sales, Construction Spending
Wednesday: Factory Orders
Thursday: ADP Employment Report, ISM Non-Mfg Index
Friday: Employment Situation

Mixed Worldwide Markets – Weekly Update for June 12, 2017

Markets were mixed last week with leading tech stocks falling dramatically as some investors pulled profits. The NASDAQ took the biggest hit, finishing 1.55% down on the week—its worst week of the year. Meanwhile, the Dow rose 0.31% for the week, notching another record close on Friday. The S&P 500 fell 0.30%, and the MSCI EAFE closed the week down 1.22%.

The S&P tech sector dropped 3.3% on Friday; however, it remained up 18% for the year. Major tech stocks account for almost 13% of the total number of stocks in the S&P 500, while comprising nearly 40% of the S&P 500 increase for the year.

Internationally, Asian markets were mixed while European markets closed the week generally higher. The European equities markets took last week’s UK election in stride, though the pound dropped in response to the Conservatives losing their majority.

Domestically, monthly job openings exceeded 6 million in April. Hiring, however, has slowed to only 5 million per month, suggesting workers’ skills may not match job needs. Moreover, the economy continues to show signs of softening.

Indications of a Softer Economy

  • Wholesale and Retail Inventories Down: Revised wholesale inventories shrunk 0.5% in April, the largest contraction in more than 12 months. In addition, retail inventories fell in April as sales weakened.
  • Inflation Slows: As noted last week, consumer prices remain weak. Inflation slowed in April to an annual rate increase of 1.7% year-over-year, down from the 1.9% recorded in March and 2.1% in February. Falling oil prices, excessive auto inventories, and increasing apartment rental inventories will all create headwinds to reaching the Fed’s target rate of 2.0%.
  • Factory Orders Down: Factory orders fell 0.2% in April. While motor vehicles rose 0.6% and computers gained 1.6%, durable goods orders fell 0.8%.
  • Oil Prices Drop: Though summer driving season is here, U.S. gasoline demand dropped by nearly a half-million barrels a day. While the need for fuel fell—and despite beliefs that oil would fall by 3.5 million barrels—stockpiles rose by 3.3 million barrels. As a result, oil dropped by 4%, ending the week at $45.86 per barrel.

What Comes Next

The Fed will hold a meeting this week to determine whether to raise interest rates. Expectations are that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise the fed funds rate 0.25% to 1.25% despite the soft economic news, which the Fed characterized as “transitory.” The FOMC meeting will also address quarterly forecasts for the remainder of the year. The markets expect both Japan and Britain’s central banks to also address the issue of interest rates.

In addressing the federal debt, the Treasury Secretary assured last week that the U.S. will not default on its debt. Congress must address the debt limit this summer or fall, but markets may react negatively if delays occur. Meanwhile, Congress continues to wrestle with policy questions around tax reform, an infrastructure program, and healthcare reform. How the government addresses these important initiatives could alter market dynamics in the future.

If you have questions on where you stand as these events unfold, do not hesitate to contact us. We are here to support your financial life with clarity and sound perspectives.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Wednesday: Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, FOMC Meeting Announcement
Thursday: Industrial Production, Housing Market Index
Friday: Housing Starts, Consumer Sentiment

Economic Volatility: Where Are The Markets In Response? – Weekly Update for June 5, 2017

Last week, the S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ closed at all-time record highs. The S&P 500 rose 0.96%, the Dow gained 0.6%, and the NASDAQ grew by 1.54%. Meanwhile, the MSCI EAFE gained 1.64% for the week.

Despite strong equity markets, bond yields dropped to their lowest point in the year. The drop in yield caused by rising bond prices, combined with soft employment numbers and low wage growth, could suggest a slowing economy or a tightening labor market.

While the U.S. equity markets advanced to new highs and bond prices rose, other markets were mixed for the week. Pending home sales dropped 1.3% in April, a second straight month of decline. Oil fell to $47.66 a barrel, the dollar dropped to a seven-month low against the euro, and gold gained 0.8% closing at $1,280.20.

Additionally, soft employment numbers and flat wages could lead to a disappointing Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). With an eye on dropping inflation, the Fed will have to decide whether to still raise interest rates.

Mixed Job Numbers and Slow Wage Growth

May’s job growth reported an anemic 138,000, well below the expected 185,000. At the same time, average hourly wages increased on a year-over-year basis by only 2.5%. Moreover, the revisions to March and April’s payroll numbers fell by 66,000 jobs. The economy is currently averaging 162,000 new jobs per month for the year—again, well below 2016’s 187,000 average.

Despite the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%, the lowest it’s been in over 15 years, the employment-to-population ratio also fell. Still, the data confirms that demand for experienced and skilled workers exists, while the supply is falling.

Fed Will Discuss Raising Interest Rates

On June 14, the Fed FOMC will meet to determine if an interest rate increase is in order. Despite the soft employment numbers and an inflation rate below the Fed’s target of 2%, traders still believe there is a nearly 88% chance that the Fed will raise rates in June. However, the market consensus currently suggests only a roughly 50/50 chance for another rate increase before the end of the year.

International News and Looking Ahead

Manufacturing in China has posted strong returns. Both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs reported gains above 50. The numbers suggest that China is on track to reach its targeted 6.5% growth for the year. This matters because China is the world’s second largest economy at $11 trillion GDP for 2017.

Other developments in the international arena could influence markets going forward. Reaction to President Trump’s decision to leave the Paris Climate Accord could adversely affect American products in the international markets. The landmark decision also runs the risk of hurting U.S. tech and alternative energy companies.

We will continue to follow developing international and national news as they move the markets. As always, if you have questions about how these events may affect your finances, please contact us. We are here to help you remain informed and in control of your financial future.

Economic Calendar

Monday: Factory Orders, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Tuesday: JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey)
Thursday: Jobless Claims

Strong Markets & A Positive Outlook – Weekly Update for May 30, 2017

The markets marched ahead last week with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ reporting all-time records, albeit just slightly above previous highs. The S&P rose 1.43% over last week, while the NASDAQ was up 2.08%. The Dow gained 1.32% and the MSCI EAFE gained 0.14% for the week. Volatility subsided as the CBOE Volatility Index, which gauges fear in the market, fell to 9.8 at the end of the week.

A few important economic developments also caught our attention.

Market News for the Week

  • Strong Corporate Earnings  

Corporate earnings remain a bright spot as approximately 75% of S&P 500 companies beat their Q1 earnings estimates. S&P 500 corporate earnings are averaging a 13.9% increase—the best performance in over 5 years.

  • First Quarter GDP Revised Upward

The good news is that Q1 GDP revised upward from 0.7% to 1.2% growth. However, the economy continues to grow at a less-than-robust rate at approximately 2% on a year-over-year basis, as it has since 2011.

  • Oil Prices Fall  

U.S. crude ended the week at $49.80 after prices fell almost 5% on Thursday following OPEC’s announced 9-month extension to limit oil production. Investors remain cautious; U.S. oil production has spiked by over 10% in the last year, keeping oil prices down by offsetting reduced OPEC production.

  • Softening Housing Sales

New home sales fell 11.4% in April to an annualized rate of 569,000. Median new home prices dropped 3.0% to $309,200, as sales are tracking for only a modest 0.5% gain for the year. April’s existing home sales dropped 2.3% in another indication of softening home sales.

  • The Fed’s Plan to Tighten Its Balance Sheet  

As expected, the Federal Reserve FOMC unveiled a proposal to gradually unwind its $4.5 trillion balance sheet with monthly limits. The process is likely to begin later in the year, though the Fed has not announced a specific date.

Heading Into Summer

After Memorial Day, the shortened workweek brings more attention-worthy reports as investors will continue to evaluate the prospects for a stronger Q2 GDP performance. Tuesday’s April consumer spending reports and Friday’s trade data should give us a better picture of where Q2 GDP is heading.

Investors will continue to monitor the U.S. trade gap. April exports were down 0.9% while imports were up 0.7%, creating an unfavorable gap of $67.6 billion. Investment in new equipment will also provide investors with another important indicator of future economic growth. New equipment orders have so far remained flat for the year, though. Finally, the Fed’s plans for a possible interest rate hike in June will be on investors’ radar.

If you have questions about where you stand today or how to prepare for tomorrow, we are here to talk. Our goal is to give you the facts and insight you need to remain informed and in control of your financial future.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Monday: Closed
Tuesday: Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: Motor Vehicle Sales, Pending Home Sales
Thursday: ADP Employment Report, Construction Spending, PMI Manufacturing Index
Friday: Employment Situation

Volatility Returns: The Markets’ Response to Change – Weekly Update for May 22, 2017

Early last week, both the S&P and NASDAQ recorded all time highs before tumbling along with the Dow as political concerns rose. By Friday, though, the markets had largely rebounded and steadied. The S&P 500 closed the week down 0.38%, the Dow saw a 0.44% loss, and the NASDAQ reported a 0.61% decline. The MSCI EAFE reported up 0.79% for the week.

The CBOE VIX is designed to measure market volatility by using S&P 500 put and call index option prices. For most of the year, volatility in the markets has been low. However, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked 40% midweek before falling back by week’s end, indicating a possible increase in market volatility.

Through the week’s ups and downs, investors followed some other important economic developments.

LAST WEEK’S DEVELOPMENTS:

  • Solid Regional Business Index
    The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey again pointed to progress in the factory sector. While the consensus range was 16.0 – 25.0, the General Business Conditions Index-Level reported 38.8.
  • Mixed Housing Reports
    New home sales remained strong as the housing market index rose 2 points to 70. The data came out well ahead of the 65 – 69 consensus range. However, April housing starts were lower than expected. Housing starts are now at a 1.172 million annualized rate, after falling 2.6%.
  • Household Debt Rises
    Total household debt rose to a new high, reporting a $149 billion increase to come in at $12.73 trillion. Student loans and auto loans were major contributors to the rising debt:

WHAT’S AHEAD

Economy
Manufacturing output rose 1.0 percent in April, the strongest monthly result in over 3 years. As such, investors will track how the rest of the second quarter shakes out. In addition, we will be interested in this week’s housing reports, hoping for a better handle on where this up-and-down sector is heading.

Geopolitical
Financial markets could experience some headwinds as geopolitical situations fester. Concerns over North Korea and political opposition to globalization remain. In addition, Brazil is facing political disruption and a deep recession that could mean problems for companies with business interests in that country. Similarly, continuing political challenges for the Trump administration may adversely affect proposed tax reform, health-care legislation, and infrastructure initiatives.

As always, we will continue keeping abreast of market and economic updates. We encourage you to focus on your long-term financial outlook. Should you have any questions, we are happy to help.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Tuesday:  New Home Sales
Wednesday:  Existing Home Sales
Friday: Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Sentiment

Invest Lifestyle Expenses on Memorable Experiences

Financial envy is even more of a thing now than it was back in 1913 when cartoonist Arthur R. “Pop” Momand debuted the comic strip “Keeping Up with the Joneses,” which centered on the misadventures of Aloysius P. McGinnis and his family, who were always trying to keep up with their never-seen neighbors, the Joneses.

Today, we not only have television shows displaying lifestyles of the rich and famous, we’re punched with images and status updates in social media, too.

We not only see the “Joneses” on television, but we are likely connected on social media to colleagues and friends who post frequent photos and statuses about their new luxury car, boat, or 3-carat diamond ring.

Though we may think the grass is greener at the Joneses, we have no way of knowing whether that snapshot is a true picture of “the good life,” or a depiction of living beyond one’s means.

One 2016 study of household debt in America shows the average household has debt balances totaling almost $17,000, and the average household with any kind of debt, including mortgages, owes nearly $135,000.

Most people pursue happiness and there are economists who assert that happiness is the best indicator of a society’s health. In that pursuit, some folks assume if we spend money on an object, we will be happier longer because that item lasts longer than say, a one-off experience like a vacation or a concert. According to recent research, though, that assumption might be incorrect.

That same study showed buying things makes us happy, but only briefly. Its continual presence makes it fade into our surroundings. The study also showed that among those surveyed, people’s satisfaction with buying things decreased, while those who spent money on experiences showed increased satisfaction over time. That is because experiences tend to become imbedded in our identity.

There are at least two tactics we can employ to enhance and prolong our enjoyment of spending our lifestyle expenses: spending on experiences, not things, and savoring those experiences.

The good news is that there are techniques you can develop to savor your experiences and amplify the happiness you derive from them. Researchers have identified 4 common strategies for relishing. You can use one or combine tactics:

1. Build your anticipation of your experience or trip. Talk to family, friends and/or coworkers about what you will be doing or where you are going. If you are traveling with a group, get together with them and learn more about the destination or adventure and plan your activities. During your gathering, immerse yourself in the culture by eating foods and listening to music from the area where you are planning to travel.

2. Stay present and fully appreciate what’s happening. Do not observe everything around you from behind a camera lens, phone camera or otherwise. First, take in and really absorb everything around you. Savor the experience, the landscape, the city skyline—whatever it is you are in or doing. Afterward, take time memorializing everything; purchase a quality keepsake from your experience, take pictures, write in a journal, post your adventures on your social media accounts. Choose a unique hashtag for your trip/adventure and share it with your family and friends. When you are back home, look up your hashtag and follow the chronology of your trip and see all the things people said about your posts.

3. When you get home, reminisce, relish, relive. Get together with your travel mates and share stories, photos, and souvenirs. Place your keepsake where you can see it and recall memories of your trip/adventure. You also might consider putting up a photo or postcard in your home or office, or changing the image on the home screen on your phone to one from your adventure. Read a fiction or nonfiction book set in or written about the place you visited.

4. Talk about and share with others at every stage of your trip/adventure. By sharing at every stage (anticipation, experience, reminiscence), you prolong and enhance all the things you enjoyed about your trip/experience. While you are on your trip, talk with your travel mates at each meal about favorite moments. Share your experience by talking to others, writing or blogging about it, or posting visual and written snapshots on your social media accounts. Last Fall, I had the incredible opportunity to travel to Honduras with a team from my church. We got to see how a church, a medical clinic, a child development program, and new homes are transforming lives in the city of La Ceiba. It was life-changing. I wanted to share the incredible experience with everyone so that they could get a glimpse into what we experienced, and wrote a post with pictures about the trip, and you can view the post here as an example.

These ideas help prolong your experience and make it bigger than life, which ultimately makes you feel as though you have gotten the most out of your investment, whether you spent $300, $3,000 or $30,000 on your experience.

Thank you for reading! If you have any questions or would like to discuss any financial topics, we are happy to talk.

 

Mixed Signals, Positive Performance – Weekly Update for May 8, 2017

Last week, stocks rose but floated within a narrow trading range. By Friday, however, both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ reached record highs. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.63%, the Dow finished up 0.32%, and the NASDAQ rose 0.88%. The MSCI EAFE added 1.7%.

Overall, we experienced another week of generally positive, but somewhat mixed, economic signals. Soft auto sales and tumbling oil prices offset increased job creation and the lowest unemployment recorded in a decade.

POSITIVE MARKET NEWS

  • Increased Job Creation and Low Unemployment
    In April, U.S. payrolls added 211,000 jobs, exceeding the 190,000 predicted and showing a significant bounce back from March’s 79,000 increase. The jobless rate also dropped to 4.4%—the lowest it has been since May 2007. The economy added jobs in several industries:

    • Leisure and hospitality: +55,000 jobs
    • Health care: +20,000 jobs
    • Mining: +9,000 jobs
    • Professional and business services: +39,000 jobs
    • Government: +17,000 jobs
  • Strong Corporate Earnings
    First quarter earnings season continued last week, and U.S. companies once again reported strong results. So far, companies with majority overseas profits are reporting an average revenue growth of 19.9%, outperforming S&P 500 companies with domestic earnings only. This difference helps explain how corporations are reporting strong Q1 earnings despite sluggish economic growth in the U.S. during the same period.

MIXED SIGNALS

  • Auto Sales Below Expectations
    U.S. motor vehicle sales bounced up to an annualized rate of 16.9 million. Though April’s report falls below the predicted 17.2 million, it improves on March’s 16.6 million annualized rate.
  • Oil Prices Tumble
    Oil prices tumbled last week. Both June West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude and July Brent crude finished the week down. WTI closed at $46.22 a barrel, falling approximately 6.3% below last week’s close. Brent crude fell by about 5.6% for the week to $49.10 a barrel.

LOOKING AHEAD

On Wednesday, May 3, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it would keep the federal funds target range at 0.75% to 1.00%. Nonetheless, the Fed remains encouraged that the second-quarter GDP will rebound, because they believe consumer fundamentals remain solid. This sentiment may indicate the FOMC will raise rates in their June meeting.
On Sunday, Emmanuel Macron won the French presidential election, as expected. Macron’s win should ease European Market concerns, as he is a centrist who supports global trade, the euro, and France’s continuing membership in the EU.

As we look ahead to this week, our analysis will include a variety of international and domestic focuses. In particular, consumer prices, retail sales, and business inventories will highlight economic reports for the week while oil prices also should remain in focus for investors.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Tuesday: JOLTS (tracks monthly changes in job openings)
Thursday: Jobless Report, Producer Price Index
Friday: Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Consumer Sentiment

Earnings, Taxes & International News: What’s the Market Impact? – Weekly Update for May 1, 2017

Stocks continued their advance on generally strong earnings reports this week despite the GDP report showing a slow first quarter economy. The S&P 500 rose 1.51%, the Dow gained 1.91%, and the NASDAQ added 2.32%. On Tuesday, the NASDAQ posted record highs as it closed over 6,000 for the first time. Internationally, the MSCI EAFE was up 2.97%.

On Friday, April 28, we learned that first quarter GDP increased a modest 0.7%, lower than the reported consensus expectations of approximately 1%. Oil drilling and housing performed well, but consumer spending fell, largely due to poor auto sales and lower utility bills. Consumer spending, the largest segment of our economy, rose by only 0.3%.

While this growth is slower than the 2.1% last quarter—and the lowest we’ve experienced in three years—the picture is likely not as negative as it may seem at first. Not only did mild weather affect consumer spending on heating, but the government has also acknowledged its challenges accurately calculating data for first quarter GDP.

In addition to these GDP readings, a number of other events and data releases contributed to market performance this week.

Domestic Developments

  • Corporate Earnings Were Largely Positive
    Thus far in the first quarter, 79% of reporting companies published strong profits. In particular, consumer discretionary companies and commodity producers reported robust earnings while phone services and real estate investment trusts had weaker results.

  • Trump Announced Tax Plan
    President Trump outlined his new tax proposal, including plans to cut corporate taxes to 15%. Individual tax rates would fall to 10%, 25%, and 35% if Congress adopts the President’s plan.

International News

  • North American Trade Experienced Tension
    On Wednesday, April 26, reports that the U.S. may pull out of NAFTA created concern in financial markets. By Thursday, however, markets calmed after President Trump said he would agree to requests from Canada and Mexico’s leaders to renegotiate the decades-long trade deal. As these negotiations continue, two controversies lay in the background:

    • U.S. dairy farmers’ claims that Canadian action concerning milk imports violates the trade agreement.
    • A new tariff of up to 24% on Canadian softwood lumber that President Trump announced last week.

Finding the right solution for the negotiations is important to the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. NAFTA affects a significant portion of each country’s economy, including industries such as farming, automotive, and energy. Trade with the two countries accounted for approximately $584 billion in U.S. exports in 2016.

What’s Next

With Congress avoiding a shutdown last week, the markets should focus this week on:

  • Earnings reports
  • Construction spending
  • April auto sales
  • Manufacturing data
  • Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday

By Friday, most remaining S&P 500 companies’ earnings reports will be in, including Apple, Facebook, and Pfizer. Looking ahead, we will watch for what economic stories emerge from the data we receive, including the upcoming jobs report. For now, despite the first quarter’s initially slow GDP growth of 0.7%, expectations continue for 2.5% growth in 2017.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Monday: Construction Spending, Personal Income and Outlays, PMI Manufacturing Index, ISM Manufacturing Index
Wednesday: ADP Employment Report, PMI Service Index, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Thursday: International Trade, Productivity and Costs
Friday: Employment Situation