Hixon Zuercher Capital Management

Fee-only Registered Investment Advisor in Findlay, Ohio 45840

Strength, Growth, and Tension – Weekly Update for June 11, 2018

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As last week ended, tension between the U.S. and some of its greatest allies was on the rise. Trade remained a hot-button topic ahead of the G-7 meeting in Canada, but investors seemed largely unfazed by the drama. In fact, all 3 domestic indexes posted strong results: The S&P 500 added 1.62% and the NASDAQ gained 1.21%, with both indexes notching their 3rd week of gains in a row. The Dow ended Friday up 2.77% for the week—recording both its highest level and largest weekly gain since March. International stocks were also up, with the MSCI EAFE increasing by 0.91%.

While geopolitical headlines keep unfolding, new data continues to indicate that the U.S. economy is on solid ground. Let’s examine a few updates we received last week:

  1. The trade deficit decreased in April.
    The latest trade data was largely positive, with the trade deficit hitting a 7-month low and coming in nearly $3 billion lower than expected. In April, exports reached their highest level in history. The economists at First Trust believe that this strong performance could push the 2nd-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as high as 5%.
  1. The labor market continues to tighten.
    The latest Job Openings and Labor Market Survey (JOLTS) gave an interesting perspective on our current labor market. Right now, more jobs are available than unemployed people looking for them. Since JOLTS began almost 20 years ago, this has never happened before. The data indicates that employers are struggling to hire people for open jobs—and that the economy is at full employment.
  1. The services sector is expanding.
    May data from the ISM non-manufacturing index showed that the services sector has experienced its 2nd-best beginning of a year since the index launched in 1997. Business activity and new orders had very positive performance, which could contribute to continuing service-sector growth for the months ahead. The report also showed prices increasing and provided more data that employers are having a hard time filling jobs in this tight labor market.

What is ahead this week?

We will receive two major central bank reports this week—and the historic U.S.–North Korea summit is on the docket as well.

President Trump and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un are meeting on Tuesday. The talks should cover North Korea’s nuclear program, but no one can say for sure what market impact it may have.

On a more predictable note, most analysts expect the Federal Reserve to announce its latest interest rate hike on Wednesday. While the markets have likely priced in this increase already, the Fed’s projections for the rest of 2018 could affect investor sentiment.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, experts expect the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce a plan to finally wind down its quantitative easing. If the ECB doesn’t share a timeline for ending this recession-era program, investors may interpret the move as a sign that policymakers are concerned about the EU’s economic outlook.[ix]

With a lot to consider this week, we encourage you to remember that many data updates indicate our economy is performing well. As the information unfolds, we’re here to help you separate relevant reports from headline hype. Contact us any time if you have questions about how these details may affect your financial life.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Tuesday: Consumer Price Index
Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Announcement
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Retail Sales
Friday: Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment

Jobs Report Calms Volatility – Weekly Update for June 4, 2018

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Markets experienced heightened volatility this week, with both the S&P 500 and Dow dropping 0.82% and 1.60% respectively. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ rose 0.24% as international markets took a small dip with the MSCI EAFE losing 1.10%.

The markets’ highs and lows came from a variety of economic and geopolitical developments. The U.S. jobs report posted solid gains while international trade concerns continued to cause some unease. In this market update, we’ll break down the major stories to help you understand what moved markets.

Impressive Jobs Report

Outstanding non-farm payroll employment numbers rolled in on Friday, and the data supports a strong U.S. economy. Here is a snapshot of some key numbers:

  • Unemployment dropped to 3.8%—its lowest recording in 18 years.
  • Payroll growth jumped to 223,000, far beyond the expected 188,000.
  • Average hourly earnings climbed 2.7%; as a result, the Fed will likely raise interest rates two more times in 2018.

Taken together, the data gives investors and analysts a positive outlook. With more people working, consumption could rise, which could increase demand on production and keep people employed. Some analysts believe that this cycle should continue, barring any unforeseen disruptions. Meanwhile, the solid data helped ease market tensions and keep the U.S. dollar up, despite concerns of a potential global trade war. 

New International Tariffs

On Tuesday, President Trump said the U.S. would implement a 25% tax on $50 billion worth of products from China, including high-tech investments. This decision seemed to surprise China, as rumors of a trade war had recently calmed. U.S. and Chinese officials were unable to resolve their dispute over tariffs on Sunday, June 3.

The Trump administration also announced tariffs on metals from Canada, Mexico, and the European Union—all U.S. allies. In an attempt to reduce our trade deficit, Trump placed a 25% tax on steel and a 10% tax on aluminum. International leaders reacted quickly to the news, claiming they may strike back on U.S. goods like orange juice, motorcycles, bourbon, apples, and other products.

What’s Ahead?

Next week, we will focus on Tuesday’s job openings and Wednesday’s international trade reports. Other indicators like jobless claims and factory orders will help balance out a relatively quiet week for economic data. In addition, we will continue to track developments on trade negotiations and the potential summit between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

If you have questions about how any of this information may affect you, please contact us. We are happy to help you.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Monday: Factory Orders
Tuesday: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, JOLTS
Wednesday: International Trade Report
Thursday: Jobless Claims

Tackling Trade and Treasuries – Weekly Update for May 21, 2018

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Major domestic indexes went down last week after all three gained more than 2% the previous week. The S&P 500 dropped 0.54%, the Dow gave back 0.47%, and the NASDAQ lost 0.66%. International stocks also stumbled; the MSCI EAFE decreased by 0.61%.

Two familiar topics were on many investors’ minds last week: trade and treasuries. Here is a recap of the key details and their market impacts.

  1. U.S. and China Resumed Trade Talks

    Background:
    Tension between the world’s 2 largest economies continued last week as the U.S. and China launched another round of trade discussions. Both countries have threatened billions of dollars of tariffs on the other’s products, but so far, neither has acted.

    On Saturday, May 19, the countries released a joint statement saying they would take measures to “substantially reduce the United States’ trade deficit in goods with China.” The Chinese state media called the agreement a “win-win.” Then on Sunday, May 20, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced that they had “put the tariffs on hold.” The weekend’s developments imply both countries will continue working to close the trade deficit by increasing China’s imports of U.S. agricultural commodities and energy.

    Market Impact:
    As the trade talks unfolded on Thursday and Friday, investors received very little information. This uncertainty affected investor sentiment and contributed to stocks ending lower on Friday. Now that the countries have shared some details about the negotiations, we will focus on how investors digest the news in next week’s trading. Mnuchin’s assertion that the trade war is on hold for now should be welcome news for investors.

  2. U.S. Treasury Yields Spiked

    Background:
    The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3% or higher every day last week. Early Friday, it reached its highest point in almost 7 years as data continued to demonstrate the labor market’s strength. We learned last week that the number of people receiving jobless benefits is at its lowest since 1973. Unemployment is also currently at an almost 17-year low. The numbers suggest the economy is likely reaching full employment.So, how does labor data affect Treasuries? Typically, employers have to pay higher wages when unemployment is low. As wages increase, other prices in the economy often rise, which can trigger inflation. This can cause Treasury prices to suffer as their fixed payments become less valuable, causing yields to rise.

    Market Impact:
    Treasury yields affect markets in a variety of ways. When they increase quickly, concerns can arise that the economy is accelerating too fast, which can cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. In addition, for 10-year Treasuries, yields above 3% are a psychological benchmark. Some people believe stocks become less appealing when Treasuries can provide this level of income.

What’s Ahead

For now, we will continue to analyze whether yield increases are a sign of a strengthening economy or rising inflation rates.

We know that trade disputes and Treasury yields are complex, constantly changing topics. So, if you have questions about how these details affect your financial life, we are here to talk.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Wednesday: New Home Sales, FOMC Minutes
Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Jobless Claims
Friday: Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Sentiment

Markets Post Week of Growth – Weekly Update for May 14, 2018

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On Friday, the markets closed the week gaining traction. The Dow had 7 days of consecutive growth, rising 2.34%—its largest weekly gain since March. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rose 2.41%, the NASDAQ jumped 2.68%, and the MSCI EAFE increased 1.41%.

Various factors came together to support the growth. From geopolitical topics to strong corporate earnings, we’ll focus on 3 key developments that drove movement.

  1. Energy Shares Boosted by Iran Nuclear Deal Withdrawal
    President Trump’s decision on Tuesday to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal helped push the energy sector higher. With the possibility of renewed sanctions on the horizon, the anticipation of a pullback from global oil supplies helped boost prices. Though oil prices fell from a 3½-year high on Friday, it was the 2nd week of growth, driving energy shares to rise 3.8%.   
  1. Technology Sector Jumps Amid Strong Corporate Earnings
    After the technology sector’s months of stagnation—fueled in part by recent fears over privacy—it is now approaching all-time highs. Since April 25, the information technology sector has increased 9%. The movement is driving many investors to join the rally, while many analysts remain cautious. Overall, the growth contributed 3.5%.This rally happened on the back of strong corporate earnings. Over 70% of total S&P 500 companies reported earnings growth that exceeded expectations. Last week’s positive reports helped push the index past 50- and 100-day moving averages.
  1. Inflation Remains Steady
    The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the price of goods and services, rose only 0.2% for the month in April and 2.5% over the year. These reports both missed and met expectations, respectively. The tepid growth caused some investors to worry that the Federal reserve would raise interest rates more quickly, as the U.S. dollar fell and held below its 2018 high. Some analysts, however, believe that the missed expectations should ease the Fed’s pressure to fast-track interest rates.

Looking Ahead

We will continue tracking geopolitical developments—from potential actions against Syria, tariffs on Iran, and preparations for President Trump’s upcoming meeting with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. In addition, key discussions around the American Free Trade Act and trade relationships with China remain on the horizon. We also will gain our first insights on how well consumer spending performed in the 2nd quarter.

If you would like to discuss any developments or gain a clearer understanding of how these issues may affect your portfolio, contact us today. We are always here to help you make sense of your financial life and gain clarity for the road ahead.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Tuesday: Retail Sales, Housing Market Index
Wednesday: Housing Starts
Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 

Examining Employment – Weekly Update for May 7, 2018

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Domestic indexes posted strong results on Friday, May 4, as the latest labor report data lessened investors’ concerns about inflation and interest rates. Nonetheless, stocks had mixed results last week. The S&P 500 dropped 0.24% and the Dow gave back 0.20%, which marked both indexes’ 2nd week of losses in a row. Thanks to a bounce in tech stocks, however, the NASDAQ gained 1.26%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE decreased by 0.57%.

Amid this relatively tepid performance, we reached a big milestone on May 1: Our current economic expansion is now officially the 2nd longest on record. For 8 years and 10 months, the economy has been growing, and many sectors still have room to advance.

As we look to better understand where we stand today, Friday’s employment report provides key insights into our economic health.

What We Learned About Employment

  1. Growth Slowed
    The report indicated that the economy added fewer jobs than expected in April, and average hourly wage growth also grew more slowly than forecast. Federal Reserve members watch this data closely to help anticipate changes in inflation.
  1. Participation Dropped
    The percentage of working-age people participating in the labor force dropped by 0.1%. This decline may result from people retiring or returning to school but can also come from people choosing to stop looking for work. The lower participation rate may contradict some of the more positive trends we’ve seen recently.
  1. Unemployment Declined
    Despite missing growth projections, unemployment fell to 3.9%, the lowest point in 18 years. The rate has only dropped below 4% during 3 other periods. The low unemployment numbers came more from the lower labor force participation rate than from more people finding jobs.

 Key Takeaway

Lower participation rates could affect long-term economic growth. However, the combination of low unemployment and reasonable wage growth are likely a positive scenario for the economy. Many people who want jobs have them, but inflation should remain under control.

As the bull market lumbers toward its 9th year, many reports continue to indicate a solid economy. If the economic expansion continues through July 2019, it would be the longest in history (with records going back to the 1850s). While that accomplishment would be noteworthy, our focus remains on current circumstances, and striving to find insight that affects your financial future. From trade to jobs to manufacturing and beyond, we have many details to watch on your behalf.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Tuesday: JOLTS
Thursday: Consumer Price Index, Jobless Claims
Friday: Consumer Sentiment

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