Q1’s Initial Data & Records: What’s Next? – Weekly Update for April 3, 2017

With the first quarter of 2017 now behind us, we have seen the three major indexes all gain more than 4.5% so far this year. In fact, the NASDAQ just experienced its best quarter since 2013 due to tech stocks driving growth.

Despite closing down on Friday, the indexes added to their quarterly gains last week.  The S&P 500 grew by 0.80%, the Dow was up 0.32%, and the NASDAQ gained 1.42%. At the same time, international stocks in the MSCI EAFE lost 0.26% for the week.

What else happened last week?

  • Oil gained on word from OPEC

Oil prices experienced their largest weekly gains in 2017, ending above $50 a barrel. This growth is largely a result of speculation that OPEC (an intergovernmental organization of 13 oil-producing countries) will continue its agreement to curb oil output. By reducing supply, the nations aim to reduce the supply glut that drives prices down.

  • Q4 GDP increased with revisions

The final revisions for fourth quarter GDP beat expectations, coming in at 2.1%—up from the previous estimates of 1.9% growth. This plodding growth is in keeping with the economic recovery we have experienced the past several years.

  • Inflation hit a key Fed benchmark

When deciding on monetary policy, the Federal Reserve pays close attention to the PCE deflator, an inflation measurement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They want to see this data above 2%. We learned last week that in February the PCE deflator hit this level for the first time since 2012. If this trend continues, we could see additional interest rate increases this year.

  • Consumer confidence and sentiment remained high

The Conference Board’s March readings for consumer confidence jumped to the highest levels since December 2000, surprising economists who expected the reading to decline from February. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment readings also showed an increase for March. However, the Michigan survey’s chief economist pointed out that participants’ sentiment showed a deep partisan divide. With confidence and uncertainty seemingly split along party lines, the effect on spending behaviors remains to be seen.

So far, the first quarter of 2017 has brought market growth and several positive economic data reports—coupled with heated policy debates occurring in government and the media. Moving forward, we will continue to seek the best opportunities to pursue your goals and keep you informed with the information you need to help make solid decisions.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Monday: PMI Manufacturing Index, ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending
Tuesday: Motor Vehicle Sales, Factory Orders
Wednesday: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Friday: Employment Situation

Upcoming Reports Impacting the Market – Weekly Upate for February 27, 2017

Once again, domestic markets reached record highs last week. The S&P 500 was up by 0.69% and the NASDAQ increased by 0.12%. With its 0.96% week-over-week growth, the Dow has posted gains for 11 straight days and is currently experiencing its longest record streak since 1987. On the other hand, international equities in the MSCI EAFE lost ground, dropping by 0.25% for the week.

Last week did not offer much new information on economic fundamentals. With the exception of January increases for new single-family homes and the fastest pace of existing home sales since 2007, we do not have a tremendous amount of new data to share.

In the absence of this data, focusing on the roiling political conversations becomes much easier. As we have said before, we encourage you to pay attention to how the economy is performing—not what the headlines are blaring. Rather than recount the policy debates and political back-and-forth, we will discuss three important economic developments on our horizon: revised GDP, February CPI, and Fed interest rate deliberations.

What’s Ahead?

February 28: Revised Q4 2016 GDP

On Tuesday, we will receive the second growth estimate of the U.S. economy during the fourth quarter of 2016, which came in at 1.9% in the first estimate. Consensus is that the revised estimate will increase to 2.1%, but we will have to wait until March 30 to see the third and final measurement of Q4 economic growth.

The Bottom Line: GDP is key in measuring the U.S. economy’s strength. Any upward revisions would signal our economy is growing faster than the initial readings indicated.

March 15: February Consumer Price Index (CPI)

In January, the CPI experienced its largest month-over-month jump since 2013. The upcoming February report will help to show whether prices are continuing to increase and how the cost of living is changing.

The Bottom Line: The CPI measures changes to the average cost of specific goods and services that consumers purchase and is a key indicator for inflation. This data
affects the bond and equity markets, labor contracts, Social Security payments, tax brackets, and more 

March 15: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Announcement

From March 14 – 15, the FOMC will meet and determine whether or not to raise the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rates. After the meeting concludes, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will announce their decision—a move that market participants will watch very closely. Yellen recently commented that “Waiting too long to [raise rates] would be unwise.” However, Wall Street does not expect an increase in March and shows a less than 1 in 5 chance of this move.

The Bottom Line: When the Fed changes its benchmark interest rate, the effects reverberate throughout our economy. According to Barron’s, the FOMC interest-rate policy meetings “are the single most influential event for the markets.” If the Fed decides to raise rates, this choice would affect interest rates now and also imply that monetary policy will continue to tighten throughout 2017.

These upcoming details are only a few of the noteworthy economic details on the horizon. If you have questions about what other fundamental data we are tracking or believe could affect your financial life, we are always here and would love to connect!

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Monday: Durable Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales Index
Tuesday: GDP, Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: Motor Vehicle Sales, PMI Manufacturing Index, ISM Mfg Index,
Friday: PMI Services Index, ISM Non-Mfg Index

What To Do With The Trade Deficit – Weekly Update for February 13, 2017

The political world has presented much conversation lately, but one topic has had Americans’ attention since campaigning season: tax reform. Last week, President Trump announced that a tax plan is forthcoming, and domestic markets responded by reaching record highs. In fact, we saw positive market performance even before the announcement, as the S&P 500 and Dow posted new records two days in a row, while the NASDAQ reached record highs every day except Monday. By Friday, the Dow was up 0.99%, the NASDAQ added 1.19%, and the S&P 500 capped its fourth consecutive week of gains to increase by 0.81%. On the other hand, the MSCI EAFE was down this week, posting a 0.03% loss.

In today’s highly politicized market environment, we understand that you seek insight on how changes could affect your financial life. While we could focus on potential policy or tax adjustments, many of these details are still unclear. Rather than addressing speculation, we prefer to analyze and share key data that we do have details on from last week: the trade deficit.

What happened? The most recent trade deficit numbers came in last week, showing that in December 2016 the following occurred:

Why should you care? As we discussed a few weeks ago, trade is integral to our economy—and we saw a decrease in net exports slow GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2016. Essentially, when the U.S. imports more goods than we export, the economy may not perform as well.

However, analyzing the trade deficit is not a simple “lower is better, higher is worse” circumstance. In a healthy economy, the trade deficit can increase, as Americans’ incomes grow and they buy more imported goods. Understanding what signs are positive and which are negative can help you better know where we stand.

What can we learn from this week’s findings? The trade deficit is larger than a year ago, but the increases are less dramatic than what some headlines may imply. For instance, a MarketWatch article shared that “U.S. trade deficit hits highest level in four years.” But when you look at the changes on a graph, the difference may seem less extreme than the headline implies.

Ultimately, while the balance between imports and exports is meaningful, the volume of trade matters greatly as well. December’s increasing trade volume—both imports and exports—can show us that both U.S. and global economies are improving.

Looking ahead, changes to trade deals and corporate tax rates could have significant effects on the trade balance and volume. We will continue to evaluate this monthly metric to look for insight into our economy’s fundamental strength. As always, we will work to keep you informed so you know what is happening and how we are pursuing your goals in an evolving world.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Tuesday: Producer Price Index
Wednesday: Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Market Index
Thursday: Housing Starts
Friday: E-Commerce Retail Sales

New Year, New Market Highs – Weekly Update for January 9, 2017

2017-01-09-blog-image

The first trading week of 2017 is over, and during this time, all three major domestic indexes hit record highs. The DOW reached 19,999.63 in intra-day trading on Friday, January 6 —just 0.37 away from achieving 20,000 for the first time. On the same day, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ both closed at record highs. For the week, the S&P 500 was up 1.70%, the Dow gained 1.02%, and the NASDAQ added 2.56%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE increased by 1.77%.

To say that 2017 has started differently than 2016 would be an understatement. This time last year, we ended the week with all three indexes dropping at least 5.96% on fears about China’s economy.

What else happened last week?

In addition to record highs in the markets, we received a number of economic reports, which provided a mix of positive and less-than-ideal data.

Jobs Grew, But Missed Projection: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. employers added an estimated 156,000 non-farm jobs in December. This number missed economists’ projections of 178,000 new jobs but also marked the 75th straight month of job growth.

Unemployment Increased: The percentage of individuals actively seeking jobs in the U.S. increased by 0.1% in December, meeting expectations that it would reach 4.7%.

Wages Grew: One bright spot in this week’s labor report was a 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings. After sluggish growth through much of the economic recovery, wages increased by 2.9% in 2016.

Trade Deficit Increased: In November, U.S. exports declined as our imports grew, pushing the trade deficit to a nine-month high. The inflation-adjusted trade deficit is now $3.2 billion bigger than a year ago, an increase that could deflate Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter of 2016.

Manufacturing Hit Two-Year High: For the fourth consecutive month, the ISM manufacturing index showed growth in the manufacturing industry. December’s reading of 54.7 beat expectations.

Services Sector Beat Expectations: The ISM non-manufacturing index, which surveys economic data from executives in 60 service sectors, grew for the 83rd straight month. December’s measure of 57.2 matched November’s reading and beat economists’ predictions of a drop to 56.6.

Overall, beginning a new year with record highs in the markets is encouraging for all of us as investors. Many of the fundamentals seem to point to an economy that is picking up speed—but only time will tell how our new presidential administration’s policies will affect us in the future.

We hope to see continued growth and stability, and no matter what lies ahead, we will be here to guide you toward the goals and priorities that matter most to you.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Monday: Labor Market Conditions Index, Consumer Credit

Tuesday: JOLTS

Thursday: Import and Export Prices

Friday: PPI-FD, Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment

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January 2017 Monthly Market Update Video

Happy New Year! We hope that you had a wonderful holiday season, and feel ready to take on the new year.

In this month’s video, we’ll discuss some of the major headlines that influenced markets in December — and provide insight in  to what these developments could mean for you as an investor.

If you have any questions or concerns after watching this video, send us an email, or give us a call at 419-425-2400. We would love to talk with you.

New Year Special Update: 2016 in Review – Weekly Update for January 3, 2017

2017-01-03-blog-imageFirst things first: Happy New Year! We’re thankful for all of you keeping up with us in 2016 and looking forward to what this next year holds. We appreciate your time and thoughts throughout the past year, and we are excited to work together to accomplish your financial goals in 2017.

Looking back on the final trading week of a very eventful year, we saw low volume and a break from the recent rallies for domestic indexes. While international stocks in the MSCI EAFE added 0.56%, all major U.S. indexes declined. The S&P 500 lost 1.10%, the Dow was down 0.86%, and the NASDAQ gave back 1.46%. For the first time since November 4, the indexes posted three straight days of losses. Despite these last-minute decreases, 2016 ended very differently than it began.

Last January, domestic indexes rang in the New Year with quite unpleasant performances. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ dropped, the Dow experienced its worst-ever five-day start to a year, losing 1079 points on fears of an economic slowdown in China and plummeting oil prices.

By market close on December 30, 2016, all three indexes showed healthy growth for the year:

  • S&P 500: Up 9.5%
  • Dow: Up 13.4%
  • NASDAQ: Up 7.5%

In addition to this equity growth, last week showed us a number of encouraging economic indicators for 2016, including:

Consumer Confidence Surge: On December 27, Consumer Confidence beat expectations to reach 113.7 — a 13-year high. This metric indicates that consumers feel more positively about jobs, personal finances, business conditions, and more.

U.S. Dollar Increase: The dollar was up for the fourth straight year, showing a 3.7% increase for 2016 after hitting a 14-year high on December 20.

Crude Oil Recovery: After a rough start to the year, oil experienced its largest annual increase since 2009. In fact, three-dozen U.S. gas and oil producers in the S&P energy index gained more than 40% during 2016.

We all know that 2016 brought its fair share of surprises — from victories for Brexit and Donald Trump, to our recent stock market rally and beyond. However, the year ended with domestic indexes up and a number of positive economic indicators. As we look toward our future in 2017, we see opportunities for continued growth, as well as many questions that no one can yet answer.

  • Will President Trump reduce regulation and taxes?
  • Will OPEC keep its pledge to lower oil output?
  • How will China’s economy perform?
  • Could more “Brexits” be on the horizon?

The questions remain, but no matter the answers, we are here to help guide you through the year—and toward your goals—with proactive, strategic support. If you want to talk about what we experienced in 2016, or what we anticipate for the year ahead, we would love to get in touch with you. Please reach out to us at hello@hzcapital.com or give us a call at 419-425-2400.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Monday: Markets Closed in Observance of New Year’s Day
Tuesday: PMI Manufacturing Index, ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending
Wednesday: ADP Employment Report
Thursday: PMI Services Index, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Friday: Employment Situation, International Trade, Factory Orders

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Special Quarterly Update – Weekly Update for October 10, 2016

adobe-spark-5After a volatile September, stocks ended the third quarter of 2016 resoundingly in the black. In the third quarter, the S&P 500 gained 3.31%, the Dow grew 2.11%, the NASDAQ added 9.69%, and the MSCI EAFE gained 5.80%.

What drove markets in Q3?

After pulling back in late June after Britain’s surprise vote to exit the European Union, markets recovered quickly in the early days of the third quarter. Though investors were able to enjoy a low-volatility summer, stocks returned to a choppy pattern in September.

Two key areas contributed to a lot of stock market volatility last quarter: monetary policy and the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate hike, and uncertainty around the November elections.

The presidential election is hotly contested and too close to call, giving investors plenty of concern about how the next administration will tackle the many issues facing America. House and Senate races also stand close, giving markets the grim prospect of several more years of filibusters and Washington antics.

Monetary policy also affected markets last quarter as investors speculated on the possibility of a September interest rate hike. Though the Fed chose not to raise rates at the last meeting, December is still in play.

Globally, the majority of the world’s central banks are moving toward lower interest rates (the chief exception being the U.S.). While the Fed is trying to raise rates this year and communicating its intentions clearly, the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are in full-on quantitative easing mode in an effort to boost sagging economic growth.

This tug of war between major monetary players is the source of a lot of uncertainty in the world. Also stoking investor fears is the possibility that central banks have exhausted the limits of what they can do to boost economic growth.

What do we know about Q3 earnings season?

Third-quarter earnings reports are beginning to trickle in, and analysts are expecting another quarter of negative earnings growth. Estimates for Q3 profits and revenue declined as the quarter progressed, which is in line with the trend we’ve seen over the past few years. Overall, S&P 500 company earnings are expected to be down -2.9% over Q3 2015, though revenues are expected to be up +1.2%. These are very preliminary estimates, and we can expect plenty of surprises and individual success stories as earnings season progresses.

What might we expect next?

The weeks ahead will likely be dominated by the upcoming November elections. As election uncertainty resolves, attention will likely turn to the Fed’s December meeting and economic data. We’ll know more about future Fed moves after the official minutes from the September meeting are released this week. Consumer confidence has been volatile this year, but analysts hope that Americans will feel confident enough to open their wallets for the critical holiday shopping season and give economic growth a final boost.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Monday: Motor Vehicle Sales, PMI Manufacturing Index, ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending

Wednesday: FOMC Minutes

Thursday: Jobless Claims, Import and Export Prices, EIA Petroleum Status Report, Treasury Budget

Friday: PPI-FD, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Consumer Sentiment

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HEADLINES:

U.S. auto sales pause in September. Consumers tapped the brakes on motor vehicle purchases, causing the three major U.S. automakers to report declines in sales.

Construction spending falls again in August. Builders cut back on construction project spending for a second straight month, suggesting demand for residential and non-residential projects may be waning.

Factory activity picks up in September. U.S. manufacturing experienced a surge of unexpected growth last month after declining in August as new orders and production activity both grew.

September jobs report shows labor market strength. The economy added 156,000 new jobs last month, missing Wall Street expectations of 175,000. The labor force participation rate ticked upward as more Americans joined the labor force, and the unemployment rate nudged upward to 5.0%.

Hixon Zuercher January 2016 Monthly Video Update

Stocks End Choppy Week Higher – Weekly Update for January 25, 2016

Image courtesy of FreeDigitalPhotos.net/steafpong

Image courtesy of FreeDigitalPhotos.net/steafpong

After a volatile week, markets regained some steam, helped by a recovery in oil prices and some upbeat earnings reports. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.41%, the Dow grew 0.66%, and the NASDAQ added 2.29%.[i]

Though the headwinds that roiled markets since the beginning of the year remain, investors found their footing last week and closed out a positive week for the first time in 2016. What caused the uptick in investor sentiment?

Oil prices rebounded to settle at their highest close since the first week of January. While oil is likely to remain volatile, a rally helped investors settle their nerves.[ii] Markets also got some help from the European Central Bank, which hinted at further stimulus measures to boost the European economy.[iii]

We’re also in the early stages of U.S. earnings season, which is stealing attention away from China and oil prices. So far, with 73 members of the S&P 500 reporting in, earnings are already up 1.4% on 0.8% higher revenues. While those aren’t stellar results, 71.2% of reporting firms beat earnings estimates, suggesting that corporate leaders set expectations low enough to be able to beat them amid challenging conditions.[iv]

However, the overall fourth-quarter earnings picture is likely to be less rosy. U.S. companies are struggling to achieve growth goals in a shaky global business environment, and analysts expect overall Q4 earnings to come in below Q4 2014 levels.[v] What do these challenges spell for investors? Volatility. While we can’t predict the future, we think that the first few months of 2016 are likely to be rocky for equities.

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve’s January meeting will take center stage this week, though economists expect them to hold pat on interest rates. Though it’s possible that Fed economists may vote to raise rates further, a raft of weak data and ongoing concerns about global growth are likely to trigger a wait-and-see approach.

The first look at Q4 economic growth will be released on Friday, and it’s likely to show weak growth in the last three months of the year.[vi] Earnings season will also continue, and investors will be looking forward to reports from heavy-hitters like Apple [AAPL], Facebook [FB], and Ford [F].[vii]

Will stocks be able to hold the gains and move out of the pullback? We’ll see. The news has been negative for several weeks, and it’s possible that investors are poised to jump on any positive surprises.

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Monday: Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey

Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer Confidence

Wednesday: New Home Sales, EIA Petroleum Status Report, FOMC Meeting Announcement

Thursday: Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales Index

Friday: GDP, International Trade in Goods, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment

01-25


HEADLINES:

Housing starts drop in December. Groundbreaking on new houses fell 2.5% last month and permits fell 3.9%, adding to concerns about economic growth in the fourth quarter.[viii]

Existing home sales surge. Home resales skyrocketed in December by a record 14.7%, boosted by warmer weather and a stronger labor market that is supporting household formation.[ix]

Consumer prices fall in December. A measure of inflation fell last month as lower gasoline prices weighed on energy costs. Tepid inflation could delay further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.[x]

Winter storm Jonas slams East Coast. A blizzard covered large swathes of the East Coast in historic levels of snow. The economic disruption of short-lived storms are usually minor, and Jonas may be a win for grocery stores, though it could be a loss for hourly workers.[xi]

[i] http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=00&b=18&c=2016&d=00&e=22&f=2016&g=d

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?a=00&b=18&c=2016&d=00&e=22&f=2016&g=d&s=%5EDJI%2C+&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?a=00&b=18&c=2016&d=00&e=22&f=2016&g=d&s=%5EIXIC%2C+&ql=1

[ii] http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/22/us-markets.html

[iii] http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35373365

[iv] http://www.zacks.com/commentary/69041/q4-earnings-season-spotlights-growth-challenges

[v] http://www.zacks.com/commentary/69041/q4-earnings-season-spotlights-growth-challenges

[vi] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/fed-meeting-u-s-gdp-home-data-tennis-week-ahead-jan-23-30

[vii] http://www.zacks.com/commentary/69041/q4-earnings-season-spotlights-growth-challenges

[viii] http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/01/20/u-s-housing-starts-permits-fall-in-december.html

[ix] http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/01/22/existing-home-sales-surge-record-14-7.html

[x] http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2016/01/20/december-consumer-prices-fall-slightly.html

[xi] http://www.forbes.com/sites/samanthasharf/2016/01/22/economics-of-a-blizzard-winter-storm-jonas-is-a-win-for-whole-foods-but-a-loss-for-hourly-workers/#63366ed5384a

Hixon Zuercher April 2015 Monthly Video Update