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December 2019 Market Update Video

December 19, 2019 by Josh Robb

Christmas is right around the corner, and a there are so many things happening in the economy right now. In this month’s video, we’ll discuss some recent headlines that influenced the financial markets in November.

We will also provide some perspective on what these developments may mean in the months ahead. Again, if you have any questions or concerns about your financial situation after viewing this video, you can reach out to us at hello@hzcapital.com, or give us a call at (419) 425-2400. We would love to chat with you.

We wish you and yours a very Merry Christmas, and a Happy New Year!

Phase-One Trade Deal Reached – Weekly Update for December 16, 2019

December 16, 2019 by Adam Zuercher

The Week on Wall Street

The U.S. and China announced a limited trade agreement last week. That news lifted U.S. and foreign stocks, leading to weekly gains.

Advancing 0.91% on the week, the Nasdaq Composite outperformed the S&P 500 (up 0.73%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (up 0.43%). The MSCI EAFE index, measuring the performance of developed markets overseas, improved 0.42%.

Phase-One Trade Deal Reached, December Tariffs Averted

Friday, White House and Chinese officials confirmed an agreement on what has been characterized as an initial step toward a larger trade pact. As a result of this phase-one deal, new U.S. tariffs (slated to go into effect on December 15) were canceled. The 15% tariffs (imposed on $110 billion of Chinese goods in September) now fall to 7.5%.

In return, China commits to buy greater quantities of American crops, factory goods, and energy products.

Fed Holds Steady on Short-Term Interest Rates

The last Federal Reserve meeting of the year brought no adjustment for the federal funds rate. The vote to leave short-term rates unchanged was unanimous.

After the meeting, Fed chair Jerome Powell told the media, “as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with [our] outlook, the current stance of monetary policy will likely remain appropriate.”

Retail Sales Disappoint

Economists, surveyed by Bloomberg, expected a retail sales gain of 0.5% for November, but according to the Department of Commerce, the advance was only 0.2%. In a bright spot for analysts who wanted to see a strong start to the holiday shopping season, sales at online retailers rose 0.8% last month.

Note: There will be no Weekly Market Update next week, but we will be back on December 30 with a special “Year-in-Review” edition of the WMU. Have a happy holiday season!

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: The Census Bureau offers a snapshot of November residential construction activity.

Thursday: A look at November existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors.

Friday: November personal spending data and the third estimate of third-quarter economic expansion from the federal government, plus the year’s final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (which measures consumer confidence levels).

Source: Econoday, December 13, 2019

The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: FedEx (FDX)

Wednesday: General Mills (GIS), Micron Technologies (MU), Paychex (PAYX)

Thursday: Accenture (ACN), Nike (NKE)

Friday: CarMax (KMX)

Source: Zacks, December 13, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

November Concludes With Gains – Weekly Update for December 2, 2019

December 2, 2019 by Adam Zuercher

The Week on Wall Street

As November wrapped up, U.S. equity benchmarks advanced. Stocks were again aided by a sense of optimism that a preliminary U.S.-China trade deal could be near.

For the week, the Nasdaq Composite added 1.87%; the S&P 500, 1.21%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 1.03%. The MSCI EAFE index, which measures the performance of developed stock markets outside North America, gained 0.89%.

Markets Wait for News of a Trade Pact

Wednesday, a senior White House official told Politico that the U.S. was “millimeters away” from a phase-one trade agreement with China, a deal that might involve the removal of certain tariffs.

Still, friction remains within the Sino-American relationship. Last week, President Trump signed two bills into law backing pro-democracy demonstrators in Hong Kong. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs quickly reacted, stating that American lawmakers had “sinister intentions” and adding that China would take “strong counter-measures” in return.

The Latest on Consumer Spending and Consumer Confidence

Personal spending was up 0.3% in October, according to the Department of Commerce. This happened even with no gain in household incomes.

The Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index came in at 125.5 for November. Even though it has declined for four straight months, the index remains well above levels seen during the first half of the decade.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Monday: The Institute for Supply Management provides its latest monthly index of U.S. manufacturing activity (November).

Wednesday: The ISM presents its November Non-Manufacturing Index, and Automatic Data Processing (ADP) publishes its November payrolls report.

Friday: November hiring data arrives from the Department of Labor, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary December Consumer Sentiment Index appears.

Source: Econoday, November 29, 2019

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Salesforce (CRM), Workday (WDAY)

Wednesday: RBC (RY)

Thursday: Dollar General (DG), TD Bank (TD)

Source: Zacks, November 29, 2019

November 2019 Market Update Video

November 12, 2019 by Josh Robb

Stocks were up in October. Investors liked what they heard about interest rates, trade, and earnings. On October 30, the S&P closed at a record high.

In this month’s update, I will discuss some recent headlines that influenced October stock prices, and will also offer some perspective on what these developments may mean in the months ahead.

If you have any questions or concerns regarding your financial situation after viewing the video, please reach out to us at hello@hzcpital.com or give us a call at (419) 425-2400. Thanks for watching!

October 2019 Market Update Video

October 22, 2019 by Adam Zuercher

In this video, I will share some key market and economic insights as we enter the final quarter of 2019 and this decade. Some of the items I cover in this video include:

An update of stock market performance for the year
Which sectors have been leading and lagging the US stock market
Our thoughts on the current economic expansion (which is the longest in US history)
A look at the long-term trend of the stock market and where we think we are headed from here
An update on dividend yields
Why we think the probability of a recession in the near future is low
The impact of the trade war with China
How tariffs have impacted the manufacturing (hint: it’s at the lowest level we’ve seen since 2009)
An update on the Federal Reserve and what we expect for interest rates the rest of this year
Some thoughts on the 2020 election and what you should focus on as an investor
Stats on market performance during October, November, December (historically the best quarter of the year)

As you can see, I cover a lot of information in this video. My goal was to give you a thorough update on what you need to know to be an informed investor in less than 15 minutes.

If you have any questions or concerns about your financial situation, please give us a call at (419) 425-2400, or send us an email at hello@hzcapital.com. We would be happy to talk with you!