Hixon Zuercher Capital Management

Fee-only Registered Investment Advisor in Findlay, Ohio 45840

November Concludes With Gains – Weekly Update for December 2, 2019

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The Week on Wall Street

As November wrapped up, U.S. equity benchmarks advanced. Stocks were again aided by a sense of optimism that a preliminary U.S.-China trade deal could be near.

For the week, the Nasdaq Composite added 1.87%; the S&P 500, 1.21%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 1.03%. The MSCI EAFE index, which measures the performance of developed stock markets outside North America, gained 0.89%.

Markets Wait for News of a Trade Pact

Wednesday, a senior White House official told Politico that the U.S. was “millimeters away” from a phase-one trade agreement with China, a deal that might involve the removal of certain tariffs.

Still, friction remains within the Sino-American relationship. Last week, President Trump signed two bills into law backing pro-democracy demonstrators in Hong Kong. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs quickly reacted, stating that American lawmakers had “sinister intentions” and adding that China would take “strong counter-measures” in return.

The Latest on Consumer Spending and Consumer Confidence

Personal spending was up 0.3% in October, according to the Department of Commerce. This happened even with no gain in household incomes.

The Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index came in at 125.5 for November. Even though it has declined for four straight months, the index remains well above levels seen during the first half of the decade.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Monday: The Institute for Supply Management provides its latest monthly index of U.S. manufacturing activity (November).

Wednesday: The ISM presents its November Non-Manufacturing Index, and Automatic Data Processing (ADP) publishes its November payrolls report.

Friday: November hiring data arrives from the Department of Labor, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary December Consumer Sentiment Index appears.

Source: Econoday, November 29, 2019

The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Salesforce (CRM), Workday (WDAY)

Wednesday: RBC (RY)

Thursday: Dollar General (DG), TD Bank (TD)

Source: Zacks, November 29, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

November 2019 Market Update Video

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Stocks were up in October. Investors liked what they heard about interest rates, trade, and earnings. On October 30, the S&P closed at a record high.

In this month’s update, I will discuss some recent headlines that influenced October stock prices, and will also offer some perspective on what these developments may mean in the months ahead.

If you have any questions or concerns regarding your financial situation after viewing the video, please reach out to us at hello@hzcpital.com or give us a call at (419) 425-2400. Thanks for watching!

October 2019 Market Update Video

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In this video, I will share some key market and economic insights as we enter the final quarter of 2019 and this decade. Some of the items I cover in this video include:

  • An update of stock market performance for the year
  • Which sectors have been leading and lagging the US stock market
  • Our thoughts on the current economic expansion (which is the longest in US history)
  • A look at the long-term trend of the stock market and where we think we are headed from here
  • An update on dividend yields
  • Why we think the probability of a recession in the near future is low
  • The impact of the trade war with China
  • How tariffs have impacted the manufacturing (hint: it’s at the lowest level we’ve seen since 2009)
  • An update on the Federal Reserve and what we expect for interest rates the rest of this year
  • Some thoughts on the 2020 election and what you should focus on as an investor
  • Stats on market performance during October, November, December (historically the best quarter of the year)

As you can see, I cover a lot of information in this video. My goal was to give you a thorough update on what you need to know to be an informed investor in less than 15 minutes.

If you have any questions or concerns about your financial situation, please give us a call at (419) 425-2400, or send us an email at hello@hzcapital.com. We would be happy to talk with you!

Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500 Rise – Weekly Update for October 21, 2019

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The Week on Wall Street

Earnings helped give the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 a slight lift last week, offsetting investor disappointment over the small scope of the preliminary U.S.-China trade deal reached on October 11. Blue chips took a small weekly loss.

The Nasdaq and S&P respectively gained 0.40% and 0.54% on the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated just 0.17%. Outdoing these three benchmarks, the MSCI EAFE index tracking stocks in developed overseas markets rose 1.35%.

The Early Earnings Picture

According to stock market analytics firm FactSet, 15% of S&P 500 companies had reported results through Friday’s close. Of those companies, 84% announced that net profits topping projections, and 64% said that revenues had exceeded forecasts.

One big question is whether overall earnings for S&P 500 firms will show year-over-year growth. There was no year-over-year earnings gain evident in either Q1 or Q2.

Retail Sales Declined Last Month

Shoppers scaled back their purchases in September. The Census Bureau announced a 0.3% dip for retail sales, the first decrease in seven months.

Auto sales can influence this number, and car and truck buying fell 0.9% last month. A fall pickup in that category may help encourage another monthly advance.

What’s Next

If you buy your own health coverage, note that the open enrollment period for 2020 health insurance plans begins on November 1 in most states. The open enrollment window closes on December 15. 

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: The National Association of Realtors publishes a report on September existing home sales.

Thursday: A report on September new home sales arrives from the Census Bureau.

Friday: The University of Michigan’s final October Consumer Sentiment Index appears, evaluating consumer confidence levels.

Source: Econoday, October 18, 2019

The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Celanese (CE), Halliburton (HAL), Sap (SAP), TD Ameritrade (AMTD)

Tuesday: McDonalds (MCD), Novartis (NVS), Procter & Gamble (PG), Texas Instruments (TXN)

Wednesday: Boeing (BA), Eli Lilly (LLY), Microsoft (MSFT), PayPal (PYPL)

Thursday: Amazon (AMZN), Comcast (CMCSA), Intel (INTC), Visa (V)

Friday: Anheuser-Busch (BUD), Verizon (VZ)

Source: Zacks, October 18, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

Trade Winds Move the Market – Weekly Update for October 14, 2019

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The Week on Wall Street

Stock prices pushed higher last week, as investors remained hyper-focused on any new developments with the U.S. trade negotiations with China.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 0.91%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 0.62%. The Nasdaq Composite index gained 0.93% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, added 2.28%.

Trade Winds

For nearly two years, investors’ moods have seemed to swing with each twist in the ongoing trade saga between the U.S. and China. Last week was no different.

On Tuesday, stock prices fell sharply on concerns that U.S.-China trade tensions had escalated. The White House announced the addition of 28 new Chinese companies to its list of firms that are banned from doing business in the U.S. Later in the day, White House officials confirmed that they had implemented travel bans on selected Chinese officials.

But prices bounced back Thursday and surged higher Friday on White House reports that suggested the trade talks between the two countries were “going really well.” Near the close Friday, the White House confirmed that the U.S. has come to a “very substantial phase one deal” with China.

Quarterly Earnings

Investors may start to get a better glimpse into third-quarter earnings this week, as more than 150 companies are expected to report on their operations.

As “earnings season” get underway, some attention may shift from the U.S.-China trade negotiations and toward company reports.

What’s Next

Some U.S. financial markets will be open, and some will be closed, on Monday, October 14, in observance of the federal holiday Columbus Day. The U.S. bonds markets and most banks will be closed. But the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ will be open for regular hours.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Wednesday: September Retail Sales are reported before the markets open.

Thursday: Housing Starts for September are released. A “start” is defined as the beginning of excavation of the foundation for the building. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey. The survey can provide insights into the manufacturing sector.

Source: Econoday, October 11, 2019

The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Netflix (NFLX), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), The Goldman Sachs Group (GS)

Wednesday: Abbott Laboratories (ABT), United Rentals (URI), Winnebago Industries (WGO)

Thursday: Morgan Stanley (MS), PayPal Holdings (PYPL), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

Friday: Coca-Cola (KO), Schlumberger Limited (SLB), American Express (AXP)
Source: Zacks, October 11, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

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