Hixon Zuercher Capital Management

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Major Indices Have a Mixed Week – Weekly Update for May 6, 2019

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The Week on Wall Street

Stocks were up and down last week, and the three major benchmarks ended up little changed after five trading days. The S&P 500 rose 0.20% for the week; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.22%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.14%.

The MSCI EAFE index, a benchmark for international stocks, declined 0.21%.

The Fed Emphasizes Patience

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its May meeting. Its May 1 policy statement noted “solid” job growth and economic activity, but only tame inflation pressure.

While the Fed was not expected to make a move, some investors wondered if its latest policy statement might hint at the possibility of a rate cut later this year. No such hint appeared. Fed chair Jerome Powell told the media Wednesday that “we don’t see a strong reason for moving in one direction or the other.”

Indications of a Thriving Economy

Employers added 263,000 net new jobs in April. Economists polled by Bloomberg forecast a gain of 190,000. The jobless rate fell to 3.6% last month, the lowest in half a century.

This better-than-expected employment snapshot comes on the heels of a first-quarter gross domestic product reading that surprised to the upside. In another bit of good news, personal spending rose an impressive 0.9% in March.

Final Thought

On Wednesday and Thursday, stocks fell in the wake of the Fed policy statement. Friday, they more or less recouped their losses after the impressive April jobs report. Ups and downs like these come with the territory when you invest; the key is to stay patient and think long term instead of short term.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Friday: The April Consumer Price Index, monitoring monthly and annual inflation.

 

 

 

 

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Tyson Foods (TSN)

Tuesday: Allergan (AGN), Anheuser-Busch (BUD), Lyft (LYFT)

Wednesday: Green Dot (GDOT), Hostess Brands (TWNK), Walt Disney Co. (DIS)

Thursday: AXA Equitable Holdings (EQH), Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), News Corp. (NWSA)

Friday: Enbridge (ENB), Marriott International (MAR), Viacom (VIA)

 

 

 

S&P 500 Reaches a New Peak – Weekly Update for April 29, 2019

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The Week on Wall Street

Stocks returned to record territory, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closing at historic highs. The S&P gained 1.20% for the week; the Nasdaq, 1.85%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, losing 0.06%. The MSCI EAFE index of international stocks lost 0.52%.

The S&P took only 17 weeks to fully rebound from its December low.

A Shift in Focus

Last month, Wall Street fixated on trade, reacting to even the slightest hint of progress in U.S.-China negotiations. This month, the trade talks have taken a back seat, and the fixation is on earnings.

Anxieties about a possible earnings recession may be fading. So far, first-quarter results for S&P 500 firms are 5.3% above expectations; that compares to a 5-year average of 4.8%.

At some point, trade talk will come back, or other developments will lead Wall Street to chase other trends. The thing to remember is that Wall Street is fickle: what preoccupies it one week may be shrugged off the next. Short-term trends ultimately amount to background noise during the long-term pursuit of your financial goals.

A Strong First Quarter

Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said that the economy expanded at a 3.2% pace in Q1. The number surprised to the upside. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones estimated Q1 gross domestic product would increase 2.5%.

What’s Ahead

Investors have all kinds of news to consider this week. There will be a plethora of earnings calls, plus important reports on consumer spending and hiring. Also, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference following the central bank’s May meeting.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Monday: March personal spending figures from the Department of Commerce.

Tuesday: The Conference Board’s April consumer confidence index.

Wednesday: The Federal Reserve announces its latest interest rate decision.

Friday: The April jobs report from the Department of Labor.

 

 

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Alphabet (GOOGL), Kemper (KMPR)

Tuesday: Amgen (AMGN), Apple (AAPL), Cummins (CMI), McDonalds (MCD)

Wednesday: Allstate (ALL), CVS Health (CVS), Humana (HUM), Public Storage (PSA)

Thursday: CBS (CBS), Cigna (CI), Dunkin’ Brands (DNKN), Gilead Sciences (GILD)

Friday: Fiat Chrysler (FCAU)

 

 

 

 

Special Update: Quarterly Report – Weekly Update for April 8, 2019

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The Week on Wall Street

Stocks just posted their second straight weekly gain. Investors were encouraged by the latest jobs report and new signs of progress on a U.S.-China trade deal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.17% in five trading days; the S&P 500, 1.27%; the Nasdaq Composite, 1.72%. The MSCI EAFE index of international stocks improved 1.84%.

The economy generated 196,000 net new jobs in March, according to the Department of Labor. Monthly job growth averaged 180,000 in the first quarter. Both President Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He told the media last week that the U.S. and China were getting closer to a new trade accord.

Meanwhile, a week into the second quarter, another earnings season is about to unfold. As we await results, we will take a brief look back at what happened in the first quarter.

Quarterly Update

Stocks staged an impressive comeback in Q1, recovering nearly all of the losses incurred in the last three months of 2018.

Bullish Sentiment Increased

Investors were able to set some of their recent concerns aside, at least temporarily. The Federal Reserve indicated that it would pause interest rate hikes, and while no U.S.-China trade deal was completed during the quarter, the ongoing trade dispute cooled. The economy seemed healthy: the jobless rate was under 4%, hourly pay was rising at more than 3% a year, and inflation was tame.

Add in some upside from corporate earnings, and a recipe for gains emerged.

Stocks Had Their Best Quarter Since 2009

The Dow rose 11.15%; the S&P 500, 13.07%; the Nasdaq Composite, 16.49%. Additionally, this was the best first quarter seen on Wall Street since 1998.

The Fed Held Interest Rates Steady

In March, the Federal Reserve left the benchmark interest rate alone and indicated that it would not make a rate hike this year. As recently as December, the Fed had forecast two hikes for 2019.

What’s Ahead

The first-quarter earnings season kicks off this week with three big banks reporting results. The question is whether stocks in the S&P 500 will post earnings that beat analyst expectations to the degree they have in the past few quarters. Other questions: how will consumer confidence, wage growth, and job creation fare in Q2? Will there be a Brexit or a new U.S.-China trade pact this quarter, and if so, how will global markets react? If you have questions of your own as this quarter unfolds, remember that we are always here to talk.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Wednesday: Minutes from the March Federal Reserve meeting, plus the latest Consumer Price Index, tracking monthly and yearly inflation.

Friday: The initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April, which assesses consumer confidence.

 

 

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Wednesday: Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Delta Air Lines (DAL)

Thursday: Fastenal (FAST), Rite Aid (RAD)

Friday: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), PNC (PNC), Wells Fargo (WFC)

 

 

 

 

Gains Conclude a Great Quarter – Weekly Update for April 1, 2019

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The Week on Wall Street

Stocks ended last week higher as volatility slowed, completing their best quarter since 2009. A Friday tweet from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin encouraged investors, referring to “constructive” discussions in the ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations.

The S&P 500 gained 1.27% for the week. The Dow Industrials and Nasdaq Composite both exceeded that advance: the Dow rose 1.60%; the Nasdaq, 1.42%.

Foreign shares went the other way. The MSCI EAFE index following international stocks retreated 0.91%.

2019 Could Be a Big Year for IPOs

One of the ride-share pioneers, Lyft, closed on its initial public offering (IPO) on Friday, and a glance at the IPO calendar shows that as many as 226 companies could soon go public, with Uber and Airbnb possibly among them.

This IPO wave may be a signal of a market top, or it may point to a comeback for risk appetite, which could be healthy for the overall market.

Should some big-name IPOs stumble, it may deter others from moving ahead, which may influence the market psychology. Conversely, an enthusiastic reception may help support further market advances.

Good News for the Housing Market

The Fed’s dovish tone has also influenced home loan rates. Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows an average interest rate of just 4.06% on a 30-year, fixed rate mortgage, compared with 4.28% a week earlier and 4.95% in December.

This news is especially significant given the recent pickup in existing home sales. They jumped 11.8% in February, the biggest monthly gain in more than three years.

Tax Tip

The federal income tax filing deadline is Monday, April 15, 2019. However, residents of Maine and Massachusetts have until Wednesday, April 17 to file their 2018 tax return. April 15 is Patriots’ Day, and April 16 is Emancipation Day.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Monday: February retail sales.

Wednesday: ADP’s snapshot of March private sector hiring.

Friday: The Department of Labor’s March jobs report.

 

 

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: GameStop (GME), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)

Thursday: Constellation Brands (STZ)

 

 

 

Stocks Dip on Growth Concerns – Weekly Update for March 11, 2019

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The Week on Wall Street

As in February, investors spent most of the first full trading week of March hoping for new details in U.S.-China trade negotiations. While they waited, stock benchmarks drifted downward. From Monday’s open to Friday’s close, the S&P 500 lost 2.55%, while the Dow Industrials took a 2.66% fall, and the Nasdaq Composite weakened 3.12%. The MSCI EAFE index tracking developed markets outside the U.S. and Canada fell 1.09%.

Why did stocks lose momentum? In a hint that global economic growth might be slowing, the European Central Bank abruptly reduced its 2019 Gross Domestic Product forecast for the eurozone from 1.7% to 1.1%. A disappointing reading on U.S. hiring also raised questions.

Perplexing Jobs Data

According to the Department of Labor, the economy generated only 20,000 net new jobs in February. This was the smallest monthly gain since September 2017. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, while underemployment declined sharply to 7.3%. (These decreases could reflect furloughed federal employees returning to work.) The average wage rose 3.4% in 12 months, the largest year-over-year increase in a decade.

Harsh winter weather may have impeded hiring last month, and February’s payroll growth could be revised in the Department of Labor’s next report.

Earnings Season Recap

The fourth-quarter reporting season is all but over. FactSet notes that the S&P 500 has seen earnings growth of 13.4% in Q4, marking the fifth straight quarter with a double-digit rise.

Final Thought

Stocks lost ground last week, breaking a long string of weekly advances. The extended rally partly reflected optimism that the U.S.-China trade dispute would soon be resolved, but a deal may or may not happen. The week offered a reminder that Wall Street sees both ups and downs. Day-to-day market fluctuations should not cause you to alter your long-term approach.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Monday: January retail sales.

Tuesday: The Consumer Price Index, tracking monthly and yearly inflation.

Thursday: January new home sales and February retail sales.

Friday: The University of Michigan’s initial March consumer sentiment index, measuring consumer confidence.

 

 

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS)

Wednesday: Smart & Final (SFS)

Thursday: Adobe Systems (ADBE), Broadcom (AVGO), Dollar General (DG)

 

 

 

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