Hixon Zuercher Capital Management

Fee-only Registered Investment Advisor in Findlay, Ohio 45840

August 2019 Market Update Video

by


We want to thank the Marathon Center for the Performing Arts for allowing us to use their beautiful auditorium for this month’s update! For a list of this coming season’s performances and events, check out their website HERE.

In this month’s video, I discuss some recent headlines that influenced July’s stock prices, and will also provide some perspective on what these developments may mean in the months ahead.

As always, if you have any questions or concerns about your personal financial situation, please give us a call at (419)425-2400, or send us an email at hello@hzcapital.com. We would love to talk with you.

Thank you for watching, and we hope you have a great rest of your summer!

Trade Tensions Affect Stocks – Weekly Update for August 12, 2019

by

The Week on Wall Street

Stocks spent much of last week rebounding from a Monday drop that reflected nervousness about the U.S.-China trade fight. By Thursday’s closing bell, the S&P 500 had regained all its Monday losses – but it descended again on Friday.

The three big U.S. equity benchmarks finished the week lower: the S&P declined 0.46%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 0.75%; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.56%. A broad index of foreign shares, the MSCI EAFE, lost 0.95%.

China Devalues Its Currency

Last Monday, stocks fell 3% in reaction to the overnight weakening of the Chinese yuan. A weaker yuan makes Chinese exports cheaper for buyers who pay for them in dollars.

Critics quickly accused China of manipulating its currency to strike back at the U.S. The federal government plans to impose tariffs on nearly all Chinese products next month, likely making those goods more expensive to American consumers; a weaker yuan could counter the effect of those import taxes.

Earnings Season Update

Ninety percent of S&P 500 firms have now reported second-quarter results. Their collective sales and profits have surprised to the upside.

Stock market analytics firm FactSet says that overall earnings have beaten estimates by 5.7%. Seventy-five percent of firms have reported actual earnings per share surpassing estimates, which is better than the five-year average.

Final Thought

We are seeing a significant bond rally this summer, even with interest rates at very low levels. (When bond prices rise, bond yields tend to fall.) At the moment, about a quarter of the global bond market is invested in government notes with negative interest rates. The 10-year Treasury stands in contrast. Friday, it was yielding 1.74%.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: The July Consumer Price Index appears, reporting the country’s monthly and annual rate of inflation.

Thursday: July retail sales numbers from the Census Bureau.

Friday: The initial August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index presents the latest snapshot of household confidence in the economy.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, August 9, 2019

The Econoday and MarketWatch economic calendars list upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Sysco (SYY)

Wednesday: Cisco (CSCO)

Thursday: Alibaba (BABA), Applied Materials (AMAT), Nvidia (NVDA), Walmart (WMT)

Friday: Deere & Co. (DE)

Source: Zacks, August 9, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

 

Fed Cuts Rates, Stocks Retreat – Weekly Update for August 5, 2019

by

The Week on Wall Street

Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade, in line with Wall Street’s expectations. Ironically, stocks had their worst week of 2019. 

The S&P 500 finished the week 3.10% lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite also posted weekly losses; the blue chips fell 2.60%, while the premier tech benchmark slumped 3.92%. International stocks tracked by MSCI’s EAFE index dipped 1.06%.

Fed Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate

On Wednesday, the central bank reduced the federal funds rate by 0.25%. The latest Fed policy statement noted that “global developments” and “muted inflation” influenced the decision.

Addressing the media, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the cut as a “mid-cycle adjustment.” After that comment, Wednesday’s trading session turned volatile on the interpretation that the cut was a “one and done” move, instead of what might be the first in a series.

More Tariffs Planned

Shares also fell Thursday, after a White House tweet indicated that the U.S. would put a 10% tariff on another $300 billion of goods coming from China, effective September 1.

Practically speaking, this would mean a tariff on nearly all Chinese products arriving in America. So far, the announcement has not affected plans for trade delegates from both nations to continue negotiations in September.

The Latest Hiring Data

Payrolls expanded with 164,000 net new jobs in July, according to the Department of Labor. The headline jobless rate stayed at 3.7%; it has now been under 4% for 17 months. The U-6 jobless rate, which counts both underemployed and unemployed Americans, dipped to 7.0%, a level unseen since December 2000.

Monthly job growth has averaged 140,000 over the past three months, compared to 187,000 in 2018.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Monday: The Institute for Supply Management releases its latest Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, its monthly gauge of business activity in America’s service sector.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, August 2, 2019

The Econoday and MarketWatch economic calendars list upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Marriott International (MAR), Tyson Foods (TSN)

Tuesday: Walt Disney Co. (DIS)

Wednesday: American International Group (AIG), CVS Health (CVS)

Thursday: Booking Holdings (BKNG), Uber (UBER)

Source: Zacks, August 2, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

Stocks Descend from Recent Peaks – Weekly Update for July 22, 2019

by

The Week on Wall Street

Stock benchmarks retreated during the first week of the second-quarter earnings season. As some big names shared quarterly results, investors seemed more interested in what might happen at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting.

For the week, the S&P 500 declined 1.23%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.65%, and the Nasdaq Composite, 1.18%. International stocks, measured by the week-over-week performance of the MSCI EAFE index, were down 0.79%.

Households Bought More Last Month

Retail sales were up 0.4% in June, according to the Department of Commerce. Consumer purchases account for more than two-thirds of America’s gross domestic product, and data like this may rebut some assertions that the economy is losing steam.

Traders still expect the Federal Reserve to make a rate cut at the end of this month, even with low unemployment, solid consumer spending, and stocks near record peaks. Ordinarily, the Fed lowers interest rates to try to stimulate business growth and investment when the economy lags. After ten years without a recession, its new challenge is to make appropriate moves to ward off such a slowdown.

Will Wall Street’s Expectations Be Met?

Thursday, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams noted that Fed policymakers could proactively adjust interest rates and take “preventative measures” to ward off a potential slowdown. A New York Fed spokesperson later said that Williams’ comments were “academic” and did not concern “potential policy actions.” Still, Fed Vice President Richard Clarida made similar comments last week, expressing the view that Fed officials “don’t have to wait until things get bad to have a dramatic series of rate cuts.”

Two other Fed officials – Esther George and Eric Rosengren – have publicly stated that they are not in favor of a cut.

What’s Next

About 25% of S&P 500 companies report earnings this week. In addition, the federal government will present its first snapshot of the economy’s second-quarter performance.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: June existing home sales figures appear from the National Association of Realtors.

Wednesday: The Census Bureau presents its June report on new home buying.

Friday: The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its initial estimate of Q2 economic growth.

 

 

 

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Celanese (CE), Halliburton (HAL), TD Ameritrade (AMTD)

Tuesday: Coca-Cola (KO), Texas Instruments (TXN), Visa (V)

Wednesday: AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), Facebook (FB), PayPal (PYPL)

Thursday: Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Anheuser-Busch (BUD), Intel (INTC), Starbucks (SBUX)

Friday: AbbVie (ABBV), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), McDonalds (MCD)

 

 

 

S&P 500 Tops 3,000 – Weekly Update for July 15, 2019

by

The Week on Wall Street

Friday, the S&P 500 settled above 3,000 for the first time, after rising 0.78% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average chalked up a milestone of its own: the blue chips ended the week above 27,000, gaining 1.52% on the way. Additionally, the Nasdaq Composite wrapped up the week 1.01% higher. The MSCI EAFE index, a gauge of overseas developed markets, fell 0.65%.

Stocks rallied at midweek with help from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on monetary policy, plus the latest Fed meeting minutes.

Jerome Powell’s Statements

Wednesday, Chairman Powell told Capitol Hill lawmakers that “uncertainties around global growth and trade continue to weigh on the outlook” of the Federal Open Market Committee. He also noted that “manufacturing, trade, and investment are weak all around the world.”

On the same day, the Fed presented the minutes of its June policy meeting. The record shared the belief of some Fed officials that “a near-term cut in the target range for the federal funds rate could help cushion the effects of possible future adverse shocks to the economy.”

Overall Inflation Remains Muted

The June Consumer Price Index, released last week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, measured only 1.6% yearly inflation. The Federal Reserve uses the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index as its inflation barometer; in its latest edition, it showed just a 1.5% year-over-year rise.

Currently, the Fed has a yearly inflation target of 2.0%. In the past, it has often raised interest rates in response to increasing inflation, which can potentially slow growth and affect hiring and employment levels. Absent significant inflation pressure, such a response may not be forthcoming.

Final Thought

All eyes are on corporate earnings this week, as prominent banks and about two dozen other S&P 500 firms report second-quarter results. Market participants have much to consider in terms of profits, revenue, and guidance.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: Fed chair Jerome Powell delivers a speech on monetary policy at the G7 summit in France, and the Census Bureau releases its June retail sales report.

Friday: The University of Michigan presents its preliminary July consumer sentiment index, measuring consumer confidence and perceptions of the economy.

 

 

 

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Citigroup (C), J.B. Hunt (JBHT)

Tuesday: Goldman Sachs (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC)

Wednesday: Bank of America (BAC), Netflix (NFLX), Novartis (NVS), Abbott Labs (ABT)

Thursday: Microsoft (MSFT), UnitedHealth (UNH)

Friday: American Express (AXP)

 

 

 

What’s Next?

Subscribe Schedule a Meeting Ask a Question

Connect With Us

Call Us (419) 425-2400