Hixon Zuercher Capital Management

Fee-only Registered Investment Advisor in Findlay, Ohio 45840

Stocks Up as Milestone Passes – Weekly Update for September 17, 2018

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Last week, the East Coast prepared for Hurricane Florence, which roared through the Carolinas and Georgia. As investors kept their eyes on the weather and its potential for destruction, estimates emerged of up to $27 billion in hurricane damage. This potential for damage contributed to insurance companies in the S&P 500 declining last week. While the hurricane likely won’t have a large effect on our economy, its destruction could influence data for months to come.

Meanwhile, last week brought another milestone in our economy: the 10th anniversary of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy.

For 158 years, the Wall Street firm weathered the markets’ changes. By 2008, however, various challenges, including excessive risk taking, led to its demise. The firm’s unexpected bankruptcy announcement shocked investors and triggered market panic, leading what was a simmering financial crisis to become the Great Recession. A decade later, the markets are on more solid ground, and banks hold more capital and have stronger regulation. While some professionals or analysts warn of a potential looming recession, current market performance and economic data indicate just how far we’ve come.

Let’s examine last week’s data to understand examples of where we are today: Domestic indexes rebounded to post healthy gains for the week, with the S&P 500 adding 1.16%, the Dow gaining 0.92%, and the NASDAQ increasing 1.36%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE were also up, gaining 1.76%.

In addition, we received the following updates, which support a picture of a more robust economy:

  • Consumer sentiment jumped: The September reading was at its 2nd-highest point since 2004. The data reveals that consumers expect the economy to grow and create more jobs.
  • Retail sales stalled but are primed for growth: Spending barely increased in August, after months of strong growth. However, analysts believe this data is “a blip” rather than an emerging trend, as tax cuts and a healthy labor market leave Americans with money in their pockets.
  • Industrial production rose for the 3rd-straight month: Auto manufacturing contributed to higher than expected industrial production in August. For now, trade tensions have not yet hurt this sector.  

These data reports may not show blockbuster growth, but together they indicate our economy is doing well. In fact, they were strong enough to lead many economists and analysts to increase their projections of how fast the economy expanded during the 3rd quarter.

Looking back, the markets have come far from where they were 10 years ago. But risks will always remain, as Hurricane Florence and Lehman Brothers remind us. Today and in the future, we are here to help you understand where you are and plan for whatever may lie ahead.

Also, for those affected by the hurricane, we’re ready to support your recovery and provide the financial guidance you seek.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Tuesday: Housing Market Index
Wednesday: Housing Starts
Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Jobless Claims

A Shaky Start to September – Weekly Update for September 10, 2018

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Domestic markets fell last week due to negative trade news and declining tech stocks, with the S&P 500 and Dow both breaking their multi-week winning streaks. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ posted losses for 4 days in a row for the first time since April and experienced its worst September start since 2008. Overall, the S&P 500 lost 1.03%, the Dow dropped 0.19%, and the NASDAQ gave back 2.55% for the week. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE also declined, losing 2.89%.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which can help gauge market fears, increased 15.8% last week. This increase matches what often occurs during September, when volatility returns after waning during the summer months. In fact, since 2007, volatility has been above average in September.

Of course, the change from one month or season to another isn’t enough to trigger market losses and rising volatility. Let’s analyze what drove these experiences last week.

  • Trade tension escalated between the U.S. and China.
    The U.S. is getting closer to resolving trade issues with Mexico, Canada, and the European Union⎯and the countries may unite against China’s trade approach. As a result, the likelihood of calming the trade dispute between the U.S. and China is fading. Last week, President Trump said he was prepared to add tariffs to another $267 billion in Chinese goods. These tariffs would be in addition to the $200 billion that may launch soon, which one expert said could reduce the S&P 500 by 5%.
  • Tech stocks dropped.
    Last week, the technology sector declined by 2.9%. Tech has performed better than any other sector this year and has been a market leader for 3 years. But concerns about increasing regulation—with a focus on social media companies—weighed on investors’ minds last week.
  • Wage growth increased.
    The latest jobs report surpassed expectations, with the economy adding 201,000 jobs in August. Year-over-year wage growth also rose more than expected and hit its fastest pace since 2009. This wage increase contributed to stock losses, because it could mean that 2018 will have 2 additional interest rate increases⎯with more on the horizon for 2019.

Last week certainly provided data and headlines for investors to digest. But the job market, economic fundamentals, and market remain strong. For the moment, we’ll continue to review the data we receive and seek new ways to help you prepare for what lies ahead.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Tuesday: JOLTS
Thursday: CPI, Jobless Claims
Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment

Mixed Results as Turkey Stumbles – Weekly Update for August 13, 2018

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Stocks ended the week in mixed territory as trouble with Turkey’s currency affected U.S. equity performance on Friday, August 10. For the week, the S&P 500 lost 0.25%, the Dow declined 0.59%, and the NASDAQ increased 0.35%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE stumbled, giving back 1.57%.

Although last week brought relatively few economic updates, we did learn that the labor market continues to improve and consumer prices are on the rise. While this news may have affected market performance, the challenges facing Turkey’s economy had an outsize impact on global stocks.

What happened to the Turkish lira?

The Turkish lira dropped 14% to 6.46 per dollar, the weakest on record with the largest drop in more than 17 years. The lira ended the week at a record low against the U.S. dollar. Tension between the U.S. and Turkey played a part in the decline as President Trump tweeted plans to double tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum imports. This potential tariff hike followed a stalled conversation between the two countries concerning an imprisoned U.S. pastor who Turkey believes supported a 2016 attempted coup.

How did investors react?

The resulting drop in the lira’s value concerned investors and led to losses in markets worldwide. Friday, the S&P 500 marked its largest daily decline since June after getting close to a new record high.

Why do investors care?

The lira’s drop is another sign that emerging markets are experiencing challenges in their economies. Some investors worry that Turkey’s economic crisis could spread to other countries or affect interest in other emerging markets.

Should you be concerned?

Probably not for now. U.S. companies don’t have a tremendous amount of exposure to Turkish markets.

We know that global dynamics can be complex and understanding their specific effects on your financial life may seem challenging. If you have any questions, contact us any time.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Tuesday: Import and Export Prices
Wednesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Market Index
Thursday: Housing Starts, Jobless Claims
Friday: Consumer Sentiment

Stocks Up as Data Comes In – Weekly Update for August 6, 2018

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Domestic markets ended last week in positive territory, as the S&P gained 0.76%, the Dow was up 0.05%, and the NASDAQ increased 0.96%. This performance marked the 5th week in a row that the S&P 500 and Dow posted gains. Meanwhile, international stocks in the MSCI EAFE stumbled, losing 1.47% for the week.

Once again, trade and corporate earnings were in the news last week. We learned that the U.S. is considering increasing tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports. In response, China announced their own tariffs ranging from 5%-25% on $60 billion of U.S. products.

Corporate earnings season also continued, and so far, more than 78% of S&P 500 companies have beaten estimates. If the trend holds, the 2nd quarter will likely average more than 20% growth in earnings per share. Companies have also detailed positive perspectives for the rest of 2018, showing that this strong corporate performance should continue.

Of course, last week’s trade and earnings weren’t the only topics on investors’ minds. We also received a number of data reports that shaped our understanding of the economy’s health.

Key Findings from Last Week

  • Consumers are earning and spending more. The latest data for personal consumption and personal income revealed both measures increased by 0.4% in June. In addition, the report included revised data from 2013-2017, which indicated that people earned $1.05 trillion more during that time period than initially thought.
  • Tariff concerns are affecting manufacturing. The manufacturing sector continues to expand at a faster rate than in 2017, but the pace of growth slowed more than anticipated in July. Respondents to the ISM Manufacturing Index survey shared concerns about tariffs, steel and aluminum disruptions, and transportation challenges.
  • The Federal Reserve is on track for a September rate hike. The Fed didn’t raise rates this month, but projections show a 93.6% chance that it will do so in September. The latest jobs report detailed steady wage increases, which helped ease Fed concerns about inflation.

This week is relatively light on economic data, but we will continue to analyze last week’s reports and the remaining corporate earnings releases. If you have any questions about where the economy is today or what may lie ahead, we’re here to talk.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Tuesday: JOLTS
Thursday: Jobless Claims
Friday: Consumer Price Index 

Special Quarterly Update: 4 Key Details to Know about Q2

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Last week, trade tensions with China lessened somewhat, while the 2nd quarter corporate earnings season started with mixed results. Against this backdrop, domestic stocks experienced sizable growth. By market’s close on Friday, July 13, the S&P 500 was above 2,800 for the first time since February 1. Meanwhile, the Dow was above 25,000, and the NASDAQ had hit a new record. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.50%, the Dow added 2.30%, and the NASDAQ was up 1.79%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE increased as well by 0.16%.

We are now two weeks into July, which means the 1st half of 2018 is behind us. As we analyze what may be ahead in the markets, we’ll also strive to understand what has happened so far this year.

2nd Quarter Update: Key Details to Know

  • Domestic indexes had mixed results.
    At the end of the 1st quarter, the NASDAQ was up by 2.3%, while both the S&P 500 and Dow were in negative territory for the year. Fast-forward to the 2nd quarter’s end, and the Dow was still down with a 1.8% loss between January and June. During the same time period, the S&P 500 gained 1.7% and the NASDAQ added 8.8%.
  • Trade tension persisted.
    Global trade was a major topic throughout the 2nd quarter. In April, the U.S. proposed $50 billion of tariffs on Chinese products—and China announced its own tariffs in response. The trade tension also extended to Canada, the EU, and Mexico as the U.S. added tariffs to steel and aluminum imports from these countries. While this situation attracted significant news coverage, investors were able to put much of their focus on economic details—such as corporate earnings—instead.
  •  Interest rates rose.
    In June, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25%, which marks the 2nd rate hike so far this year. The Fed gave an optimistic view of the economy and said that two more increases could be ahead in 2018.
  • The labor market stayed strong.
    In May, unemployment hit its lowest level since 2000. June’s labor report showed unemployment increasing to 4% but for a positive reason: more people reentering the job market. The latest report also showed better-than-expected job growth. Wage increases missed expectations and still have room to expand more quickly. At the same time, their steady pace should help keep inflation in check and interest rate increases continue gradually.

Looking Ahead

More 2nd-quarter data is still to come. Gross Domestic Product may have increased by as much as 5% annually between April and June. That growth rate would be over twice what we experienced in the 1st quarter. We are also at the very beginning of 2nd-quarter corporate earnings season, and analysts predict earnings growth of 20%.

Moving into the 3rd quarter, trade will likely continue to be a hot topic, but it’s far from being the only detail worth following. As we gain more information about what happened in the 2nd quarter, we will combine those perspectives with the performance we’re experiencing now. In the meantime, if you have any questions, we’re here to talk.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Monday: Retail Sales
Tuesday: Industrial Production, Housing Market Index
Wednesday: Housing Starts
Thursday: Jobless Claims

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