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Dow, S&P, Nasdaq Climb Higher – Weekly Update for February 19, 2019

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The Week on Wall Street

Stocks ended a good week on a high note, as hints of progress in U.S.-China trade talks encouraged investors.

When the closing bell rang Friday, the S&P 500 settled at 2,775.60, after rising 2.50% in five days. The Dow Industrials gained 3.09%, to close Friday at 25,883.25. The Nasdaq Composite improved 2.39% to 7,472.41.

Shutdown Averted

Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief late last week as Congress passed a bill to keep the federal government funded. President Trump signed the measure on Friday.

The development is expected to have a positive effect on consumer sentiment, which may influence the financial markets. During the shutdown, consumer confidence hit an 18-month low.

Retail Sales Unexpectedly Slip

Thursday, the Census Bureau announced that retail sales fell 1.2% in December. This was the largest monthly decline in more than nine years and fell short of expectations. Economists polled by Bloomberg anticipated a small gain.

Was the slow December mostly a reflection of consumer anxieties about the shutdown and the stock market? If so, it is possible that retail spending may see an uptick. (It should be noted that these monthly numbers are often revised later.)

Inflation Holds Steady

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most widely followed measure of inflation, was flat in January for a third consecutive month. Year-over-year, overall inflation is running at just 1.6%.

The CPI is one of the key factors the Fed considers when assessing the economy and determining what lies ahead for interest rates.

What’s Ahead

U.S. and Chinese negotiators face a March 1 deadline to reach a deal to extend the current tariff truce. In March, tariffs on many Chinese imports could rise to 25% from 10%. President Trump said Friday that he is open to postponing the March deadline if it appears an agreement may be near.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Monday: Presidents’ Day holiday (U.S. financial markets closed).

Wednesday: Minutes of the January Federal Reserve policy meeting are released.

Thursday: January existing home sales.

Friday: Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida speaks in New York.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, February 15, 2019

The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision. The release of data may be delayed without notice for a variety of reasons, including the shutdown of the government agency or change at the private institution that handles the material.

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Devon Energy (DVN), Walmart (WMT)

Wednesday: Analog Devices (ADI), CVS Health (CVS)

Thursday: Dominos (DPZ), Fluor (FLR), Intuit (INTU), Kraft Heinz (KHZ)

Source: Morningstar.com, February 15, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

 

Stocks Post Small Weekly Gains – Weekly Update for February 11, 2019

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The Week on Wall Street

Major U.S. stock benchmarks eked out slight gains last week, with corporate profit reports and news about U.S.-China trade negotiations vying for investor attention over five trading sessions.

The big three ended the week little changed from where they settled the previous Friday. The Dow Jones Industrials rose 0.17% percent, while the S&P 500 Index gained 0.05% percent. The NASDAQ Composite ended the week up 0.47%. Looking at international stocks, the MSCI EAFE index retreated 0.47%.

Earnings Scorecard

As of last Friday, 66% of all S&P 500 companies had reported fourth-quarter earnings. So far, 71% of these firms have announced earnings exceeding estimates, and 62% have seen revenues top projections.

Halfway through earnings season, 2019 future guidance has been a mixed bag for S&P 500 companies. For Wall Street, future earnings can be just as important as current earnings. We keep a close eye on both.  

Tariff Tensions

March 1 is the 90-day deadline set by President Trump for a trade deal with China. If no agreement is reached, the U.S. may consider a new round of tariffs. On Thursday, news that President Trump and Chinese President Xi may not meet before the March 1 deadline added to the market volatility.

The decision by the U.S. on new tariffs may hinge on how much progress has been made toward a new agreement. We don’t expect that to become clear until the deadline nears.

State of the Service Sector

Many indicators help economists take the pulse of the overall economy. The Institute for Supply Management keeps a critical, but not widely followed, index, which helps gauge the health of the service sector.

The January reading on this index came in at 56.7. Any reading above 50 shows that the service industry is seeing solid growth.

Final Thought

Over the next several weeks, we’re expecting more volatility as the markets digest economic news, a new wave of corporate earnings, and twists and turns on the geopolitical front. We will be watching to see if anything changes our short-term and long-term view. If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to contact us.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Wednesday: January’s Consumer Price Index, which measures monthly and yearly inflation.
Thursday: December retail sales figures (a delayed release due to the government shutdown).
Friday: January’s preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, a gauge of consumer confidence levels.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, February 8, 2019
The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision. The release of data may be delayed without notice for a variety of reasons, including the shutdown of the government agency or change at the private institution that handles the material.

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Loews Corp (L)
Tuesday: Activision Blizzard (ATVI), HubSpot (HUBS), Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
Wednesday: Cisco (CSCO), Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT), Yelp (YELP)
Thursday: Applied Materials (AMAT), CBS (CBS), Coca-Cola (KO)
Friday: Deere & Co. (DE), PepsiCo (PEP)

Source: Morningstar.com, February 8, 2019
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

Markets Gain Again – Weekly Update for February 4, 2019

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Last week closed out one of stocks’ top January performances in years. In fact, both the S&P 500 and Dow posted their best January results in at least 3 decades. For the week, major domestic indexes were also up. The S&P 500 gained 1.57%, the Dow added 1.32%, and the NASDAQ increased 1.38%. The Dow’s performance marked its 6th week of gains in a row. Internationally, MSCI EAFE stocks also posted growth, rising 0.91%.

What drove stock results last week?

As discussed in our previous market update, last week provided a number of details for investors to focus on. Here are some key items that contributed to market performance:

  1. Federal Reserve Meeting: The Fed chose not to increase interest rates above its current 2.25% – 2.50% target. When releasing this update, the central bank noted that it would be “patient” when deciding about any future increases.

Market Impact?

The Fed’s signal that additional rate hikes may not be imminent helped improve market confidence.

  1. Corporate Earnings: By Friday, nearly half of S&P 500 companies had released earnings data for the 4th quarter of 2018. Of them, 70% had higher earnings-per-share than expected and 62% beat revenue projections. Right now, the S&P 500 is poised to have its 5th quarter in a row of double-digit earnings growth. However, the currently projected growth of 12.4% is lower than it has been since 2017.

Market Impact?

With worries of disappointing results calmed, some investors are feeling relieved by earnings season so far.

  1. January Labor Report: The latest Employment Situation release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the economy added 304,000 new jobs in January. At the same time, the unemployment rate increased slightly, as the count included furloughed federal workers. The latest data also indicated that December job growth was lower than initially reported.

Market Impact?

The January job growth was much higher than investors expected and implied the partial government shutdown minimally affected the U.S. economy. These perspectives helped drive stock gains on Friday.

This week, we will continue to monitor corporate earnings season and will follow any developments in the U.S.–China trade negotiations. We will also watch for new data releases, especially those previously delayed by the government shutdown. If you have any questions, we’re here for you.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR*

Monday: Motor Vehicle Sales, Factory Orders

Tuesday: PMI Services Index, ISM Non-Mfg Index

Wednesday: Jerome Powell Speaks

Thursday: Jobless Claims

*The federal government shutdown may delay some data releases.

 

 

 

 

Markets Up—And Volatile – Weekly Update for January 7, 2019

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U.S. markets experienced more wild sessions last week before ending in positive territory as the recent turbulence continued. In fact, we are currently in the middle of some of the most volatile market performance in more than eight years. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.86%, the Dow added 1.61%, and the NASDAQ increased 2.34%. MSCI EAFE stocks also increased, posting a 1.42% weekly gain.

While the results may not seem especially dramatic, the path to get there certainly was. On Thursday, January 3, domestic stocks plunged, as factory data and a tech warning spooked investors. Then, the next day, the S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ each gained at least 3.3%. Friday’s performance marked one of the largest rallies since the beginning of this bull market.

What drove the market rally?

 Two key events contributed to the huge jumps on Friday: 1) the latest labor report and 2) comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman.

  1. December’s labor report exceeded projections.

Many people expected that the economy would add around 176,000 jobs last month. Instead, the latest data revealed that the increase was actually 312,000 new jobs in December—drastically beating expectations. Not only did last month’s labor report show more jobs added than anticipated, but wage growth and labor market participation also increased.

Why does this data matter?

Investors have been very concerned that economic growth is slowing. This data helped quell worries that a recession is ahead.

  1. The Fed shared new policy perspectives.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell told the American Economic Association that the Federal Reserve understands the market’s worries and hasn’t predetermined its future interest rate hikes.

Why does this update matter?

Some of the uneasiness the markets have shown recently are a result of concerns that the Fed is tightening monetary policy too quickly. Powell’s comments indicate the Fed is sensitive to economic conditions, an update that many investors wanted to hear.

What is on the horizon?

A number of unresolved situations remain for the markets and economy. The government shutdown continues, and a solution doesn’t appear imminent at the moment. Trade dynamics are also still an important consideration, especially since corporations are now issuing warnings that trade is affecting their profits. Meanwhile, U.S. officials will be meeting with China this week to talk once again.

For now, the volatility we are experiencing may continue. Remember, we’re closely tracking developments to see how they may affect your financial life. If you have questions about how to weather these ups and downs, we are here for you.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Monday: Factory Orders, ISM Non-Mfg Index

Tuesday: JOLTS

Wednesday: FOMC Minutes

Thursday: Jobless Claims

Friday: CPI

 

 

 

 

 

Stocks Down, Change Ahead? – Weekly Update for December 17, 2018

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Last week brought more volatility to the markets. While domestic indexes had some rallies as positive trade news emerged earlier in the week, by Friday, December 14, they had erased any gains. The last time major U.S. indexes ended in correction territory was March 2016, meaning they are now at least 10% below their highs from the past year.

For the week, the S&P 500 dropped 1.26%, the Dow lost 1.18%, and the NASDAQ declined 0.84%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE also had a 0.89% weekly loss.

Why did markets struggle last week?

With last week’s declines, the S&P 500 was in the midst of its worst December since 2002. Concerns about global growth fueled much of the declines as China and Europe released economic data that missed projections. The ongoing trade tension contributed to slower growth in China, which drove some investors to worry about U.S. growth, as well.

We did, however, receive solid domestic data last week, including a healthy retail sales report. But, through the week, investors seemed less interested in this data and positive trade updates, focusing instead on understanding the global economy’s standing.

What might be ahead?

This week presents a potentially significant event for domestic markets: the Federal Reserve’s commentary after its latest meeting. The Fed will likely raise interest rates during the meeting, which would be the 9th increase since December 2015. Markets expect this hike, but what investors aren’t sure about is how the Fed will describe its plan for 2019. Some analysts believe that if the Fed indicates it will pause or slow rate hikes next year, we could see a sizable “Santa Claus rally” through the end of December.

For short-term traders, predicting whether 2018 will stay in negative territory or stocks will end the year on a surge is in many ways a guessing game. What we are here to do is help you manage your investments for the long term. We will follow this week’s developments closely and strive to determine how they may affect the economy going forward. Ultimately, we are focusing on your goals not just through the year, but for the rest of your life.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Monday: Housing Market Index

Tuesday: Housing Starts

Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Meeting Announcement

Thursday: Jobless Claims

Friday: GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Sentiment

 

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