New Year Special Update: 2016 in Review – Weekly Update for January 3, 2017

2017-01-03-blog-imageFirst things first: Happy New Year! We’re thankful for all of you keeping up with us in 2016 and looking forward to what this next year holds. We appreciate your time and thoughts throughout the past year, and we are excited to work together to accomplish your financial goals in 2017.

Looking back on the final trading week of a very eventful year, we saw low volume and a break from the recent rallies for domestic indexes. While international stocks in the MSCI EAFE added 0.56%, all major U.S. indexes declined. The S&P 500 lost 1.10%, the Dow was down 0.86%, and the NASDAQ gave back 1.46%. For the first time since November 4, the indexes posted three straight days of losses. Despite these last-minute decreases, 2016 ended very differently than it began.

Last January, domestic indexes rang in the New Year with quite unpleasant performances. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ dropped, the Dow experienced its worst-ever five-day start to a year, losing 1079 points on fears of an economic slowdown in China and plummeting oil prices.

By market close on December 30, 2016, all three indexes showed healthy growth for the year:

  • S&P 500: Up 9.5%
  • Dow: Up 13.4%
  • NASDAQ: Up 7.5%

In addition to this equity growth, last week showed us a number of encouraging economic indicators for 2016, including:

Consumer Confidence Surge: On December 27, Consumer Confidence beat expectations to reach 113.7 — a 13-year high. This metric indicates that consumers feel more positively about jobs, personal finances, business conditions, and more.

U.S. Dollar Increase: The dollar was up for the fourth straight year, showing a 3.7% increase for 2016 after hitting a 14-year high on December 20.

Crude Oil Recovery: After a rough start to the year, oil experienced its largest annual increase since 2009. In fact, three-dozen U.S. gas and oil producers in the S&P energy index gained more than 40% during 2016.

We all know that 2016 brought its fair share of surprises — from victories for Brexit and Donald Trump, to our recent stock market rally and beyond. However, the year ended with domestic indexes up and a number of positive economic indicators. As we look toward our future in 2017, we see opportunities for continued growth, as well as many questions that no one can yet answer.

  • Will President Trump reduce regulation and taxes?
  • Will OPEC keep its pledge to lower oil output?
  • How will China’s economy perform?
  • Could more “Brexits” be on the horizon?

The questions remain, but no matter the answers, we are here to help guide you through the year—and toward your goals—with proactive, strategic support. If you want to talk about what we experienced in 2016, or what we anticipate for the year ahead, we would love to get in touch with you. Please reach out to us at hello@hzcapital.com or give us a call at 419-425-2400.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Monday: Markets Closed in Observance of New Year’s Day
Tuesday: PMI Manufacturing Index, ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending
Wednesday: ADP Employment Report
Thursday: PMI Services Index, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Friday: Employment Situation, International Trade, Factory Orders

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Steady Holiday for the Market – Weekly Update for December 27, 2016

2016-11-28-blog-image-1In the last full trading week of 2016, domestic markets were relatively quiet, with many people out of the office for the holidays. Nonetheless, all three major domestic indexes ended the week in positive territory. The S&P 500 was up 0.25%, the Dow gained 0.46%, and the NASDAQ added 0.47%. International equities in the MSCI EAFE were also up, increasing by 0.36%. The Dow continued to flirt with surpassing the 20,000 mark for the first time—reaching within fewer than 13 points at its highest trading point on Wednesday, December 21—before closing at 19,933.81 for the week.

Outside of the markets, we received a number of reports that painted a mostly positive view of the U.S. economy.

Good News

  • GDP revised up again: For its final report on economic growth in the third quarter, the Commerce Department adjusted the GDP up for the second time—to a 3.5% annual rate. This analysis shows the fastest economic growth in two years.
  • Consumer sentiment hits nearly 13-year high: The monthly index measuring consumers’ views on the current and future state of the economy increased by 4.7 points to reach 98.2 for December. This reading is the highest since January 2004.
  • New home sales beat expectations: Economists predicted that new home sales for November would increase by 2.1%, but last week’s data showed the increase was in fact 5.2%. Consumers anticipating higher interest rates in the future could be contributing to the expectation-beating results.

Mixed News

  • Personal incomes stayed flat: Despite economists’ predictions that personal incomes would increase by 0.3% in November, the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ data showed them flatten. Even with last month’s stagnation, personal incomes are up 3.5% for the year.
  • Durable goods orders declined: After increasing by 4.8% in October, durable goods orders dropped by 4.6% in November—due largely to a 73.5% decrease in civilian aircraft orders. While no one likes to see a decrease, the report had several positive highlights, including an unexpectedly large increase in orders for U.S.-made capital goods.

Overall, even though last week was fairly slow for trading, we continue to see signs that the economy is improving—even if it is still far from perfect. We look forward to discovering what 2017 holds for investors and hope for more record highs and an economy that picks up speed as time goes on.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Monday: Markets Closed in Observance of Christmas Holiday
Tuesday: Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: Pending Home Sales Index
Friday: Bond Market Closes at 2 p.m. ET

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Rising Rates and Your Portfolio – Weekly Update for December 19, 2016

rates-are-upLast week was mixed for the markets, as the Dow increased by 0.44%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.06%, the NASDAQ dropped 0.13%, and the MSCI EAFE gave back 0.55%. We also saw a variety of data released, giving a similarly mixed view of recent economic activity. Retail sales and the Consumer Price Index showed modest gains, while industrial production and housing starts both declined.

The biggest headline from last week, however, was a development the market anticipated for quite some time: The Federal Reserve decided to raise its benchmark interest rates—for only the second time since 2006.

Why did the Fed raise rates?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the group of Fed officials who meet to determine interest rates and other policies choices, has a mandate to “foster maximum employment and price stability.” In its quest to uphold this mandate, the FOMC aims to keep inflation at 2%, as this level can help support accurate financial forecasting and decisions while preventing harmful deflation.

The act of adjusting interest rates can help control inflation and support economic strength. At its most basic, when the Fed lowers rates, they are indicating that the economy is contracting—and when they raise rates, they are indicating that the economy is growing.

When describing her organization’s decision to raise rates this month to a range of 0.5 – 0.75%, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said, “My colleagues and I are recognizing the considerable progress the economy has made. We expect the economy will continue to perform well.” The FOMC also said they may introduce three additional interest rate increases in 2017, up from their previous prediction of two raises.

In other words, the Federal Reserve believes our economy is on the right track and inflation may begin to rise. They are using the tool of interest rate increases to help keep employment and inflation at healthy levels.

How did the markets react to the interest rate increase?

Overall, investors seemed to react reasonably to the interest rate increase. The VIX, a measure of expected volatility in the markets, increased by 4.6%—but it remains at low levels. In other words, the likelihood of great volatility seems slim.

One area of the market, however, did not respond well to the Fed’s interest rate increase and inflation increase prediction: bonds. This summer, global bond markets experienced a rally in response to a variety of factors, including potential slowing economic growth worldwide. But since the U.S. election, the value of government debt has dropped by more than $1 trillion, as investors now expect greater inflation and a quickening economy. Essentially, the faster the economy and inflation grow, the less value that long-term government debt holds—contributing to the bond market’s recent losses.

How could the rate increase affect you?

Rising interest rates have both positive and negative effects for individuals. If you have money earning interest in the bank, you can expect to earn a slightly higher return. Conversely, if you borrow money—such as taking out a new mortgage or refinancing existing liabilities—your interest rate may be higher than before the Fed’s announcement.

In addition, the interconnected relationships between equities, bond markets, and other financial vehicles will evolve as interest rates increase. These shifts can be much more complex, and we are here to help you stay on top of any changes and align your financial life with the current market environment.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Monday: Janet Yellen speaks at 1:30 p.m. ET
Wednesday: Existing Home Sales
Thursday: Durable Goods Orders, GDP
Friday: New Home Sales, Consumer Sentiment

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What Do The Rising Markets Mean For The Future? – Weekly Update for December 12, 2016

2016-11-28-blog-image-1On Friday, December 9, all three major U.S. stock indexes ended at record high. For the first time in five years, they each posted gains every day of the trading week. The S&P 500 was up 3.08%, the Dow added 3.06%, and NASDAQ increased 3.59%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE even gained 2.9%, despite potential risks from the Italian referendum and impending end of the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing.

From our vantage point, we see a rally that appears to be picking up steam. Looking at this impressive growth, however, it’s easy to wonder whether the markets are becoming overvalued and a correction is in order.

In keeping with this concern, last Monday, December 5, marked the 20th anniversary of Former Federal Reserve Chief Alan Greenspan’s famous warning about “irrational exuberance.” Back in 1996, Greenspan worried that overvalued stocks and extreme investor enthusiasm could drive stocks to reach unsustainable levels. His warning didn’t slow the markets’ growth at the time, and several more years passed before the eventual dot-com crash.

So, are we facing the same irrational exuberance as in 1996?

Hardly. We’d argue that rather than being overvalued, the markets have yet to reach their fair price. Domestic fundamentals continue to provide positive data on the economy.  With a new presidential administration coming in 2017, we may see regulations lift and banks push more money into the economy, causing growth to accelerate.

In fact, economist Brian Wesbury posted a video last week predicting the Dow would reach 36,000 in the next four to five years—an increase of more than 84%. He also asserts that the S&P 500 is undervalued by 30% and may gain 14% over the next four quarters.

Now, we aren’t comfortable making specific predictions like this—because no one can predict the future. But, we do agree with Wesbury’s calculations showing that the market is undervalued.

In other words, the markets’ recent growth seems to be based on rational exuberance. Investors see opportunities on the horizon, and they’re ready to grab them.

What’s ahead in this exuberant moment?

We’re happy to see new potential for growth, but we will continue to make choices based on detailed analysis rather than emotional reactions. This week, we’ll be paying close attention to the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, where the markets currently give a 95% chance that interest rates will increase.

Remember that we are here to help you capture momentum that will support your long-term goals. We won’t take more risk than is appropriate for your needs and comfort. If you have questions about your priorities, portfolio, or plan, let’s talk. We are always available at hello@hzcapital.com or 419-425-2400. Thanks for reading!

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Tuesday: FOMC Meeting Begins, Import and Export Prices

Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Announcement, Fed Chair Press Conference at 2:30 p.m., Retail Sales

Friday: Housing Starts

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Enjoying the Rally, Focused on the Future – Weekly Update for December 5, 2016

2016-12-05-blog-imageAfter a three-week run where all major U.S. indexes posted significant gains, we saw more mixed results last week. The Dow was up 0.10%, but the S&P 500 lost 0.97% and the NASDAQ was down 2.65%. The MSCI EAFE’s measure of international developed markets also dropped 0.24%.

Rallies such as the one we’ve experienced since Donald Trump’s election can’t go on forever, so we aren’t too concerned about these minor pullbacks. In fact, as we’ve recently said, when you look more deeply at the data, we see many reasons to believe that our economy is moving in the right direction.

Good News This Week

Positive economic news for the U.S. continued to come in this week, including reports that:

Of course, despite the ongoing indications that our economy is doing well, everything isn’t perfect in the U.S. We’d like to see the economy growing even faster than it is. And while unemployment is low, the measure of people who are underemployed is still too high at 9.3%.[vi]

Overall, we continue to see signs that our plow-horse economy may be picking up speed and building greater strength in the process.

Potential Risk: Italian Referendum

 From our perspective, the most immediate risk to market performance could be the Italian Referendum. On December 4, Italians voted against Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s constitutional amendment that would have reduced their Senate’s size and power while limiting the regional governments’ strength. From Renzi’s perspective, this move would stop the gridlock so common in Italy’s government while helping to stabilize the country, improve investor confidence, and speed economic recovery.

As 2016 has shown us with the unexpected victories of Brexit and Donald Trump, populist sentiments are on the rise worldwide. The Italian “No” vote not only represents a concern with concentrating power in the federal government but also a general pushback against the ruling party and status quo.

Now that “No” has prevailed, we may see additional instability in Europe. Prime Minister Renzi has promised to step down, leaving big questions about who will lead Italy and how they will find a new leader. In addition, some of Italy’s largest banks may now be at risk of insolvency, as they have fewer tools for lifting the $380 billion of bad loans that weigh them down.

No one knows what the long-term outcomes of this vote will be for Italy or Europe. We anticipate that some ripples of volatility may wash up on our shores in the process. We hope that, similar to Brexit, the initial market reaction will not last for long and that investors will quickly return to a focus on growth and fundamentals.

How to Move Forward With Confidence

From the first quarter’s stock-market volatility to a number of surprising votes, this year has presented many opportunities for emotions to enter investing. We understand how tempting it may be to sell when equities aren’t performing well —and to pursue greater growth when they are. Ultimately, emotions have no place in investing.

Recently, we’ve spoken to many clients who want to ride the post-election growth train. Just as we’re here to help you from despairing when stocks tumble, we also want to help control euphoria when the markets rally. Rallies can’t continue forever, and impulsive choices can challenge your security. As always, we want you to take the right amount of risk for your unique circumstances and stay focused on the long-term goals that we’re pursuing together.

If you have any questions about how current events are affecting your financial life, we are here to talk. Please contact us any time.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

 Monday: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Tuesday: International Trade, Productivity and Costs
Wednesday: Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
Friday: Consumer Sentiment

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What Does Year-End Hold For Our Strengthening Economy? – Weekly Update for November 21, 2016

interest-rates-could-riseFor the second straight week, the major domestic indexes all ended in positive territory: The S&P 500 was up 0.81%, the Dow increased 0.11%, and the NASDAQ added 1.61%. While American indexes performed well, MSCI EAFE’s international equities declined 1.58%.

With the long, drawn-out presidential election behind us, investors are beginning to look past politics and pay closer attention to the economic fundamentals. As we’ve shared in recent market updates, the economy shows many signs of strength and growth. In the past few weeks alone:

Of course, the economy is far from perfect — and growth is still slower than we’d like — but the overarching message is that the economy is doing well.

Thus, we were not surprised this week when Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said an interest rate hike “could well become appropriate relatively soon.” Despite what talking heads might warn on television, you should not be afraid of increasing interest rates.

The last increase, which took place in December 2015, may have contributed to the volatility we experienced at the beginning of this year. However, the markets have certainly recovered from their momentary stumble — with all major domestic indexes posting at least 6% increases year to date.

Volatility could increase for a short time after the next interest rate increase, but it also may not. Right now, we see the markets reacting positively despite a 90% chance of the Fed increasing rates next month.

In other words, we believe investors are seeing a potential rate increase as the good news that it is, because it indicates faith in our economy. When Yellen and the Fed decide to raise rates, they are demonstrating belief that the economy is strong enough to move back toward historically normal levels.

We’ve become so accustomed to this post-recession rate world that it’s easy to forget just how unusually low our current 0.5% rate is. Even if we move to 0.75% next month, borrowing money is still incredibly inexpensive, and we have additional room for future increases.

We are heartened to see the economy continue to grow, and President-Elect Trump’s policies may quicken the pace beyond what we’ve experienced in the recovery so far. Of course, as we’ve seen many times this year, a likely outcome isn’t the same as a guaranteed one, so we’ll have to wait and see what the Fed decides in December.

In the meantime, we encourage you to look beyond pundits’ histrionics and headlines to see that our economy is strengthening. We are here to help you make the most of it.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Tuesday: Existing Home Sales
Wednesday: Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, Consumer Sentiment
Thursday: Markets Closed for Thanksgiving
Friday: International Trade in Goods

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President Trump and Your Investments – Weekly Update for November 14, 2016

how-will-markets-performLast Tuesday, many Americans watched in great surprise as Donald Trump won our presidential election. Just that day, the New York Times had placed Hillary Clinton’s odds of winning at 85%, based on a range of state and national polls. But, like the Brexit vote this past June, 2016 seems to be the year of unexpected outcomes.

As predicted, the markets initially reacted to uncertainty as they often do: with losses. Futures for the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 all dropped at least 4% in the middle of the night after Trump’s win. But come Wednesday morning, everyone was in for another surprise.

Despite many predictions that the markets would sell-off if Trump won, all of the major U.S. indexes ended the week ahead. The S&P 500 was up 3.80%, the Dow gained 5.36%, NASDAQ increased 3.78%, and MSCI EAFE added 0.05%. The Dow closed at an all-time high on Thursday and posted its best week since 2011, despite being slightly down on Friday. Even today, the Dow reached a new record high.

Needless to say, these developments last week gave significant surprises for most people. Let’s look a bit deeper at the market’s reaction and what may lie ahead.

Understanding the Rally

The markets hate uncertainty, but they love economic growth. After Trump’s win, investors saw potential for decreased corporate tax rates, individual income taxes, and government regulation—plus increased infrastructure spending. All of these changes could help drive economic growth.

When you look at which sectors outperformed, you can see who investors believe may benefit from a Trump presidency:

  • Biotech jumped nearly 16% on expectations that Trump may not fight price increases as Clinton would have.
  • Financials increased 11.33%, because increasing interest rates, deregulation, and infrastructure projects would serve them well.
  • Industrials were up 7.96%, which would benefit from infrastructure projects.

Looking Beyond Stocks

While the major markets posted impressive gains, gold had its worst week in three years, losing roughly 6.2%.

But why?

A multitude of reasons come into play, but one stands out most clearly: If Trump is able to hold to his promise of $1 trillion in infrastructure spending, inflation will likely pick up and the Federal Reserve could significantly increase interest rates during that time. As a result, gold’s appeal would lessen as other investments offer a more attractive income yield.

What Might Be Ahead?

Right now, the election is fresh on everyone’s minds and directly affecting the markets. But like all major events, another one will eventually capture our attention. As we stand now, the fundamentals tell us that the economy is performing well. Unemployment is at only 4.9%, hourly earnings are rising, and GDP is growing. Thus, there is a good chance that the next big event on the financial horizon is a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in December.

If the Fed does choose to increase rates, we may see additional volatility in the short-run—but the underlying data shows us that the economy is fundamentally strong.

A Long-Term Focus

Seeing last week’s market performance might make you want to find even more ways to capture growth. Remember—just as in down cycles—emotion has no place in investing. We are here to help guide you through these tumultuous times and keep a tireless focus on achieving your long-term goals.

The markets and our political environment may be full of surprises, but our goal is to make your financial life as peaceful and comfortable as possible.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Tuesday: Retail Sales
Wednesday: Industrial Production
Thursday: Consumer Price Index, Housing Starts
Friday: Leading Indicators

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Stay the Course: Choosing Confidence in an Uncertain Market – Weekly Update for November 7, 2016

2016-11-07-blog-pictureWe’re in the middle of an interesting moment for the markets, where short-term volatility and uncertainty might lead you to believe that the economy is faltering. After all, the major stock indexes lost ground last week, with the S&P 500 losing 1.94%, the Dow dropping 1.50%, the NASDAQ dipping 2.77%, and the MSCI EAFE declining 1.59%. On top of these losses, the S&P 500 posted its longest losing streak since 1980.

Of course, we never like to see the markets go down. However, we believe that when you look beneath the surface, the economy is still doing far better than what this week’s performance implies. Behind the losses and ongoing election exhaustion, we see a number of strong indicators that the economy is growing. This week, we learned that the trade deficit shrank, the service sector grew for the 81st consecutive month, and manufacturing continued its steady growth.

On Friday, November 4, we also got to see new data on jobs and payrolls — the last significant economic report before Election Day.

What did the jobs report show us?

  • Unemployment Rate Dropped

The unemployment rate hit 4.9%—only 0.1% above the Federal Reserve’s target unemployment rate.

  • Economy Added 161,000 Jobs

While this job creation rate was below economists’ predictions, we don’t think it is cause for concern. The growth was matched by revised August and September reports that added another 44,000 jobs.

  • Hourly Earnings Increased

Earnings increased by 0.4%, pushing them 2.8% higher than this time last year. We haven’t seen an earnings increase this large since 2009.

  • People Left Their Jobs at Higher Rates

Last month showed the highest number of people who voluntarily left their jobs since 2007. This statistic matters because it can show that people are more confident they’ll be able to find new jobs.

Our Takeaway

For years, this plow horse economy has been adding new jobs at a slow and steady pace. Now that we’ve almost reached the benchmark unemployment rate, people are finally starting to see their wages increase and new opportunities arise. Typically, better jobs mean more disposable income, which equals increased consumer spending—and economic growth.

The rest of 2016 might not be a smooth ride, as the election and potential interest rate increase remain on investors’ minds. We hope you find comfort knowing that beneath this short-term volatility, we see growing economic strength.

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Monday: Gallup U.S. Consumer Spending Measure, Consumer Credit

Tuesday: U.S. Presidential Election

Wednesday: Wholesale Trade, EIA Petroleum Status Report

Thursday: Treasury Budget

Friday: Banks Closed but Markets Open, Consumer Sentiment

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Special 2016 Election Update – What effect will the result of the election have on your investments?

We know there is quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election. We have received calls from clients expressing their concerns about what the results would mean for their portfolio.

We put together a special update for you, and hopefully it will ease your mind as to what this election will mean for you and your investments.

If you have any questions or concerns after watching this video, please give us a call at (419) 425-2400.

How Did Big Headlines Influence the Market? – Weekly Update for October 31, 2016

2016-10-31-blog-pictureAt first glance, last week’s headlines may lead you to think that the markets are fluctuating more than they actually are. Yes, Hillary Clinton’s emails are in the news again (more on that below)—but despite that surprise, the major indexes stuck to the same range-bound performance we’ve seen for the past three months. The S&P 500 ended down 0.69%, the NASDAQ was off 1.28%, and MSCI EAFE lost 0.44%. The Dow Jones Industrial Index eked out a 0.09% increase.

Three Key Events Last Week

  1. FBI Announces Renewed Look at Hillary Clinton’s Emails 

What happened?

On Friday, October 28, FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress alerting them that the agency would be reviewing new Hillary Clinton emails discovered during their investigation of former Congressman Anthony Weiner. When news of Comey’s letter broke, the major indexes responded quickly—and negatively. For example, the Dow, which had been up 75 points, reacted with a nearly 150-point swing before closing about 10 points lower.

 What does this mean?

The announcement threw a wrench in an already contentious and exhausting presidential race. Recently, polls showed that Clinton held a solid lead over Trump, and the markets had priced in her win. But Friday’s news calls this assumption into question, creating greater uncertainty for the next two weeks.

If there’s one thing the markets hate, it’s uncertainty. And while big headlines rarely affect long-term performance, the markets may react to them in the short run. We expect this story to stay in the news through Election Day—a day we’re pretty sure every American is ready to move past.

  1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Has Biggest Gain in Two Years

 What happened?

On Friday, the government announced that GDP — essentially, the economy’s scorecard—had 2.9% growth, beating the expectations of 2.5%. Not only is this rate the best we’ve seen in two years, but it also shows far faster economic expansion than the first two quarters of 2016, when U.S. growth averaged just over 1%.

What does this mean?

The economy is growing faster than experts thought, which makes a December interest-rate increase more likely. On Friday, traders showed an 83% likelihood that the Federal Reserve would raise rates at their last meeting of the year.

Keep in mind that if the Fed raises rates, they wouldn’t be doing so to temper the economy’s growth. Instead, they would be using this positive GDP report as further evidence that the economy is strong enough to handle a move toward more normal interest rates.

  1. Durable Goods Orders Decline

What happened?

After gaining 0.3% in August and 3.6% in July, durable goods orders dipped 0.1% in September. Broadly, durable goods are items that last for more than three years—from a toaster to a tractor — and orders for them help us measure business investment. September orders lowered in a number of categories, including an 8.6% drop in orders for computers.

What does this mean?

The drop in durable goods orders is less concerning than it may seem on first glance. Between a strong dollar making U.S. exports more expensive and low oil prices leading energy companies to cut spending, large manufacturing companies have often had to cut their budgets. However, many economists believe these factors should be lessening, which can allow durable goods spending to rebound.

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Monday: Personal Income and Outlays

Tuesday: Motor Vehicles Sales, FOMC Meeting Begins, PMI Manufacturing Index, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Index

Wednesday: ADP Employment Report

Thursday: Jobless Claims, Productivity and Costs, Factory Orders, PMI Services Index, ISM Non-Mfg Index

Friday: Employment Situation, International Trade

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