Hixon Zuercher Capital Management

Fee-only Registered Investment Advisor in Findlay, Ohio 45840

Stocks Up as Milestone Passes – Weekly Update for September 17, 2018

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Last week, the East Coast prepared for Hurricane Florence, which roared through the Carolinas and Georgia. As investors kept their eyes on the weather and its potential for destruction, estimates emerged of up to $27 billion in hurricane damage. This potential for damage contributed to insurance companies in the S&P 500 declining last week. While the hurricane likely won’t have a large effect on our economy, its destruction could influence data for months to come.

Meanwhile, last week brought another milestone in our economy: the 10th anniversary of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy.

For 158 years, the Wall Street firm weathered the markets’ changes. By 2008, however, various challenges, including excessive risk taking, led to its demise. The firm’s unexpected bankruptcy announcement shocked investors and triggered market panic, leading what was a simmering financial crisis to become the Great Recession. A decade later, the markets are on more solid ground, and banks hold more capital and have stronger regulation. While some professionals or analysts warn of a potential looming recession, current market performance and economic data indicate just how far we’ve come.

Let’s examine last week’s data to understand examples of where we are today: Domestic indexes rebounded to post healthy gains for the week, with the S&P 500 adding 1.16%, the Dow gaining 0.92%, and the NASDAQ increasing 1.36%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE were also up, gaining 1.76%.

In addition, we received the following updates, which support a picture of a more robust economy:

  • Consumer sentiment jumped: The September reading was at its 2nd-highest point since 2004. The data reveals that consumers expect the economy to grow and create more jobs.
  • Retail sales stalled but are primed for growth: Spending barely increased in August, after months of strong growth. However, analysts believe this data is “a blip” rather than an emerging trend, as tax cuts and a healthy labor market leave Americans with money in their pockets.
  • Industrial production rose for the 3rd-straight month: Auto manufacturing contributed to higher than expected industrial production in August. For now, trade tensions have not yet hurt this sector.  

These data reports may not show blockbuster growth, but together they indicate our economy is doing well. In fact, they were strong enough to lead many economists and analysts to increase their projections of how fast the economy expanded during the 3rd quarter.

Looking back, the markets have come far from where they were 10 years ago. But risks will always remain, as Hurricane Florence and Lehman Brothers remind us. Today and in the future, we are here to help you understand where you are and plan for whatever may lie ahead.

Also, for those affected by the hurricane, we’re ready to support your recovery and provide the financial guidance you seek.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Tuesday: Housing Market Index
Wednesday: Housing Starts
Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Jobless Claims

A Shaky Start to September – Weekly Update for September 10, 2018

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Domestic markets fell last week due to negative trade news and declining tech stocks, with the S&P 500 and Dow both breaking their multi-week winning streaks. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ posted losses for 4 days in a row for the first time since April and experienced its worst September start since 2008. Overall, the S&P 500 lost 1.03%, the Dow dropped 0.19%, and the NASDAQ gave back 2.55% for the week. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE also declined, losing 2.89%.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which can help gauge market fears, increased 15.8% last week. This increase matches what often occurs during September, when volatility returns after waning during the summer months. In fact, since 2007, volatility has been above average in September.

Of course, the change from one month or season to another isn’t enough to trigger market losses and rising volatility. Let’s analyze what drove these experiences last week.

  • Trade tension escalated between the U.S. and China.
    The U.S. is getting closer to resolving trade issues with Mexico, Canada, and the European Union⎯and the countries may unite against China’s trade approach. As a result, the likelihood of calming the trade dispute between the U.S. and China is fading. Last week, President Trump said he was prepared to add tariffs to another $267 billion in Chinese goods. These tariffs would be in addition to the $200 billion that may launch soon, which one expert said could reduce the S&P 500 by 5%.
  • Tech stocks dropped.
    Last week, the technology sector declined by 2.9%. Tech has performed better than any other sector this year and has been a market leader for 3 years. But concerns about increasing regulation—with a focus on social media companies—weighed on investors’ minds last week.
  • Wage growth increased.
    The latest jobs report surpassed expectations, with the economy adding 201,000 jobs in August. Year-over-year wage growth also rose more than expected and hit its fastest pace since 2009. This wage increase contributed to stock losses, because it could mean that 2018 will have 2 additional interest rate increases⎯with more on the horizon for 2019.

Last week certainly provided data and headlines for investors to digest. But the job market, economic fundamentals, and market remain strong. For the moment, we’ll continue to review the data we receive and seek new ways to help you prepare for what lies ahead.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Tuesday: JOLTS
Thursday: CPI, Jobless Claims
Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment

Markets Up Again – Weekly Update for September 4, 2018

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Trade continued to dominate the news last week and cause market volatility as investors monitored discussions of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and tension with China. While Mexico and the U.S. reached a new trade deal early in the week, talks with Canada stalled on Friday, August 31. Reports also came out that President Trump may be adding tariffs on another $200 billion in Chinese goods.

Domestic markets increased for the week and ended August in positive territory. The S&P 500 and Dow each had their best August since 2014—while the NASDAQ’s 5.7% growth was its best performance for the month since 2000. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 reached a new record high. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.93%, the Dow added 0.68%, and the NASDAQ increased 2.06%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE joined the growth, adding 0.26%.

Key Data From Last Week

Although trade might have dominated headlines, last week provided a number of informative economic updates, including:

  • Personal incomes grew in July.
    The 0.3% increase fell slightly short of the projected growth but is still up 4.7% since this time last year. Combined with growth in personal consumption, this data indicates that consumers had a solid start to the 3rd quarter of 2018.
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was higher than initially thought.
    The 2nd reading of GDP expansion between April and June was 4.2%, higher than the initial reading and still the fastest economic expansion since 2014. Economists don’t believe this pace is sustainable, however, as rising interest rates, ongoing trade tension, and fading tax-cut benefits could slow growth later in the year.
  • Consumer confidence soared in August.
    The latest consumer confidence data came in higher than it has since October 2000. This strong reading may indicate that consumer spending will remain healthy for now. Since consumer spending is more than ⅔ of the U.S. economy, its growth is a critical factor to track.

This week’s performance and reports once again underscore a message we have frequently shared with you: Instead of focusing on the headlines, pay attention to the fundamentals for a clearer understanding of the economy. If you have questions about how this data affects your financial life, we’re here to talk.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Monday: U.S. Markets Closed for Labor Day Holiday
Tuesday: PMI Manufacturing Index, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending
Wednesday: Motor Vehicle Sales, International Trade
Thursday: ADP Employment Report, Factory Orders, ISM Non-Mfg Index, Jobless Claims
Friday: Employment Situation

The Bull Market Continues – Weekly Update for August 27, 2018

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Last week marked a noteworthy milestone in our economy: On Wednesday, August 22, the bull market entered its 3,453rd day, the longest such run in U.S. history. In the past 9 plus years, domestic indexes have come quite a ways since the dark days of the financial crisis. The S&P 500 is now more than 4 times the level that it was when the bull market began on March 9, 2009.

In fact, both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed last week with new record highs. The S&P 500 added 0.86%, the Dow increased 0.47%%, and the NASDAQ gained 1.66%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE also grew, increasing 1.52% for the week.

This domestic growth occurred against a backdrop of geopolitical events. Investors considered new tariffs between China and the U.S., as well as legal developments potentially related to President Trump. However, economic updates seemed to hold the most sway over market performance last week.

What did we learn about the economy last week?

Beyond passing a major milestone in the bull market, we also received some key economic updates, including:

  • The Fed’s interest rate increases should continue at a gradual pace.
    In talks last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called the economy “strong” and said inflation isn’t overheating. He indicated the central bank intends to maintain its current pace of interest-rate raises. Markets increased after his remarks.
  • The labor market remains strong.
    New claims for unemployment fell for the 3rd week in a row and were below expectations, continuing on July’s trend that included the lowest numbers since 1969. This data indicates that, despite U.S. companies facing ongoing trade tension, the labor market remains on solid ground.
  • Business investment may be on the rise.
    Data for durable goods orders includes details that can hint at how businesses plan to approach spending. This so-called “non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft” grew far more than anticipated in July. The reports indicate that business investments started the 3rd quarter on solid ground.

These updates may help support economists’ perspectives that the bull market still has life left. If you have questions about where your financial life stands today and in the future, we’re here to talk.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Tuesday: Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: GDP
Thursday: Personal Income and Outlays, Jobless Claims
Friday: Consumer Sentiment

Trade and Turkey Drive Markets – Weekly Update for August 20, 2018

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Challenges in emerging markets affected both U.S. and global stock performance last week, with the S&P 500 experiencing several down days. By market close on Friday, however, two of the three major domestics posted gains for the week. The S&P 500 added 0.59%, the Dow increased 1.41%, and the NASDAQ lost 0.29%. Meanwhile, the MSCI EAFE international stocks slipped 1.18%.

As several reports deepened our understanding of the economy’s underlying health, investors balanced the news with updates on Turkey and trade disputes. Here are some key highlights of the various developments:

Economy: Mixed Picture

The latest unemployment data beat expectations, indicating continuing strength as the labor market is near full employment. However, new home construction missed its 7.4% projected growth, increasing only 0.9% in July—following June’s 12.3% decline. Nevertheless, more positive news emerged: Thanks to tax cuts, a solid labor market, and economic growth, retail sales increased 6.4% in July year-over-year. Retail sales have now risen for the past 6 months.

Turkey: Sanctions and a Tumbling Lira

On Monday, August 13, the Turkish lira hit its lowest point ever against the U.S. dollar. The U.S. has threatened more sanctions on Turkey if the country does not release U.S. Pastor Andrew Brunson. In addition, Turkey’s inflation is swelling, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may be suppressing the central bank’s ability to increase interest rates.  The lira may continue to decline in value until interest rates rise. Some analysts are optimistic that these developments won’t create contagion in other markets. Not only is Turkey’s economy relatively small and investors have priced in some risk, opportunities still exist to help calm Turkey’s challenges.

Trade Update: Positive Movement

Later in the week, we received positive updates on trade challenges with China and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Mexican economy minister, Ildefonso Guajardo, announced that he hoped to finalize some NAFTA negotiations by this week. In addition, officials from the U.S. and China will be meeting in Washington, D.C. this week to discuss the ongoing trade disputes. These talks come before the anticipated meeting in November between President Trump and Chinese Leader Xi. A trade war with China has been one of the market’s largest concerns, so if the tension lessens, that is likely good news for equities.11

Looking Ahead

This week, we’ll receive more information about the housing market that reveals how this key industry is currently performing. We will also continue to track developments in trade and Turkey. As always, if you have any questions about what you read here⎯or what you’re hearing elsewhere⎯we’re available to talk.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Wednesday: Existing Home Sales
Thursday: New Home Sales, Jobless Claims
Friday: Durable Goods Orders

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