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Virus Anxieties Affect Stocks – Weekly Update for February 24, 2020

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The Week on Wall Street

Traders paid close attention to coronavirus developments and earnings last week, while wondering how the former might eventually impact the latter. Concern over updated infection numbers moderated risk appetite.

A pair of key stock benchmarks posted similar weekly losses. In New York, the S&P 500 declined 1.25%; the MSCI EAFE index (of developed stock markets away from North America) lost 1.24%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 1.38% for the four-day trading week; the Nasdaq Composite, 1.59%.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January Meeting

Last month, members of the Federal Open Market Committee felt the near-term outlook for the economy had improved slightly since the last Fed meeting in December. The minutes did note that the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak “warranted close watching.”

Some analysts have wondered, if the coronavirus threat heightens whether the Fed might cut short-term interest rates this year. The FOMC voted 11-0 in January to leave rates alone.

Fewer Home Sales, But More Building Permits

Sales of existing homes weakened 1.3% in January, according to a new National Association of Realtors report. On the new home front, the Census Bureau said that the rate of permits for new residential construction neared a 13-year high last month.

Final Thought

At Friday’s closing bell, gold was worth $1,646.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold futures traded at a seven-year peak on Friday morning.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index.

Wednesday: A January new home buying report from the Census Bureau.

Thursday: The second estimate of fourth-quarter economic growth from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Friday: January consumer spending numbers from the Department of Commerce, and the final February Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan (an assessment of consumer confidence levels).

Source: MarketWatch, February 21, 2020

The MarketWatch economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: HP (HPQ), Intuit (INTU), Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

Tuesday: Home Depot (HD), Public Storage (PSA), Salesforce (CRM)

Wednesday: Booking Holdings (BKNG), Lowe’s (LOW), TJX Companies (TJX)

Thursday: Anheuser-Busch Inbev (BUD), Baidu (BIDU), Best Buy (BBY), Dell Technologies (DELL)

Friday: Dollar Tree (DLTR)

Source: MarketWatch, Market Insider, February 21, 2020

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

Weekly Gains for Big Benchmarks – Weekly Update for February 18, 2020

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The Week on Wall Street

Daily headlines about the coronavirus had little impact on stock market averages last week. Earnings and mergers had more influence.

All three Wall Street benchmarks improved. The Nasdaq Composite rose 2.21%, outpacing the S&P 500, up 1.58%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, up 1.02%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas equity markets, added 0.17%.

Jerome Powell Testifies on Capitol Hill

Commenting that the economy is in a “very good place,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told congressional legislators that he did not currently see a significant recession risk.

“There’s nothing about this expansion that is unstable or unsustainable,” Powell remarked during his semi-annual report to the House Financial Services Committee. He did reiterate that the central bank was “carefully” watching the coronavirus outbreak, and that it could “very likely” have residual economic impact on the U.S.

Yearly Inflation Reaches 2.5%

Consumer prices have not advanced to this degree since the 12-month period ending in October 2018. Underneath this January headline inflation number, core inflation (minus food and energy prices, which are often volatile) was up 2.3% year-over-year.

These numbers are from the Consumer Price Index, maintained by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Federal Reserve monitors inflation using its core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which remains below the central bank’s 2% yearly inflation target.

Gains in Retail Sales, Sentiment

The Census Bureau said retail sales were up 0.3% in the first month of the year, matching the consensus forecast of analysts polled by MarketWatch. Additionally, the University of Michigan’s preliminary February consumer sentiment index monitoring consumer confidence factors went back above 100 last week (100.9).

Final Thought

The S&P 500 has risen more than 1% since the coronavirus surfaced. During the SARS epidemic of 2003, the MERS outbreak of 2013, and the 2015-16 Zika virus breakout, the index declined. 

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Wednesday: The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its January meeting, and the Census Bureau presents data on January residential construction activity.

Friday: The National Association of Realtors issues its latest existing home sales report.

Source: MarketWatch, February 14, 2020

The MarketWatch economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Medtronic (MDT), Walmart (WMT)

Wednesday: Analog Devices (ADI), NetEase (NTES)

Thursday: Dominos (DPZ), Hormel Foods (HRL), Southern (SO)

Friday: Deere & Co. (DE), Royal Bank of Canada (RY)

Source: Zacks, February 14, 2020

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

February 2020 Market Update Video

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In the spirit of celebrating Ground Hog’s Day earlier this month, I decided to call on the true experts to help me discuss the major economic headlines from last month, and also talk about how they could have an effect on you as an investor.

As always, if you have any questions about your portfolio after viewing this video, please don’t hesitate to give us a call at (419) 425-2400, or send us an email at hello@hzcapital.com. We would be happy to chat with you!

Stocks Bounce Back – Weekly Update for February 10, 2020

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The Week on Wall Street

Stocks advanced four days out of five during the past market week, erasing the losses of the week before.

The Nasdaq Composite surged 4.04%, the S&P 500 3.17%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 3.00%. Foreign stocks also rallied: the MSCI EAFE index added 2.21%.

China Plans to Halve Some Tariffs

Thursday, investors woke up to the news that China would be lowering import taxes on about $75 billion of U.S. products. Later this week, a set of 10% tariffs is slated to drop to 5%, and a group of 5% tariffs is scheduled to fall to 2.5%.

This reduction is part of the phase-one trade deal that China agreed to last month, a pact which may be a step toward a trade truce with the U.S.

January’s Net Job Gain: 225,000

The Department of Labor’s latest employment report exceeded expectations. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected 165,000 net new hires last month. The main jobless rate ticked north to 3.6%; the U-6 rate including the underemployed rose 0.2% to 6.9%.

This upside surprise points to ongoing strength in the economy. Stocks declined Friday after the report’s release, however, as traders viewing the data saw less reason for a Federal Reserve rate cut in the near future.

A Manufacturing Positive

The U.S. factory sector grew last month, for the first time since July. The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector, which traders view as a fundamental economic indicator, came in at 50.9 in January; any reading above 50 indicates sector expansion.

What’s Ahead

Investors should note that U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Monday, February 17 for Presidents Day.   

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell begins two days of testimony in Congress on U.S. monetary policy.

Thursday: The federal government’s January Consumer Price Index, measuring monthly and yearly inflation.

Friday: January retail sales data from the Census Bureau, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary February consumer sentiment index, an evaluation of consumer confidence levels.

Source: MarketWatch, February 7, 2020

The MarketWatch economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Allergan (AGN), RingCentral (RNG)

Tuesday: Exelon (EXC), Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT)

Wednesday: CME Group (CME), Cisco (CSCO), CVS Health (CVS), Shopify (SHOP)

Thursday: Alibaba (BABA), Nvidia (NVDA), PepsiCo (PEP)

Friday: AstraZeneca (ABBV), Enbridge (ENB)

Source: Zacks, February 7, 2020

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

Equities Slip on Virus Concerns – Weekly Update for February 3, 2020

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The Week on Wall Street

Stock benchmarks declined for a second straight week as coronavirus news tempered risk appetite.

The S&P 500 fell 2.14% on the week. The Nasdaq Composite dipped 1.76%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 2.55%. Away from North America, developed markets slumped 2.24%, according to MSCI’s EAFE index.

The Fed Makes a Minor Move

The Federal Reserve left short-term interest rates alone at its January meeting, but it did make what Fed chairman Jerome Powell called a “small technical adjustment” in view of its continuing purchases of Treasuries. Wednesday, it slightly increased the interest rate paid to banks that park excess capital reserves at the Fed.

The move may give the Fed a bit more control over short-term rates this quarter and assist the operations of U.S. financial markets.

Encouraging New Consumer Data

Rising to 131.6 in January, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index reached its highest level since August. Consumer spending increased 0.3% in December, according to a new Department of Commerce report.

Economy Expanded at a 2.1% Pace in Fourth Quarter

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released this estimate Thursday. That number matches the gross domestic product of the third quarter and affirms that the U.S. avoided a fall slowdown.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Monday: The latest snapshot of factory sector health from the Institute for Supply Management, presenting January data.

Wednesday: ISM’s January report on the state of non-manufacturing businesses and the latest private-sector payrolls report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP).

Friday: The Department of Labor releases its January employment report.

Source: MarketWatch, January 31, 2020

The MarketWatch economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Alphabet (GOOG), Sysco (SYY)

Tuesday: BP (BP), Fiserv (FISV), Gilead Sciences (GIL), Walt Disney (DIS)

Wednesday: GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Merck (MRK), Qualcomm (QCOM), Toyota (TM)

Thursday: Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Cigna (CI), Philip Morris (PM), Sanofi (SNY)

Friday: AbbVie (ABBV), Honda (HMC), Novo Nordisk (NVO)

Source: Zacks, January 31, 2020

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

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