The recent SpaceX Initial Public Offering (IPO) caught my attention. 

Not because I suddenly decided I need to become a space analyst. I don’t.  

And not because a huge IPO automatically means the market is about to fall apart. It doesn’t.  

But when a company like SpaceX becomes public, trades well, and immediately grabs everyone’s attention, I think investors should at least pause for a moment.  

Why? Because this kind of event says something. 

It tells the founders, venture capitalists, investment bankers, and insiders sitting on equity in private companies that the window is open. And when the window is open, Wall Street is very good at finding inventory to sell through it. 

That is the part I find especially interesting. 

For years, companies were staying private for longer. Public companies were buying back shares. Investors wanted access to the most exciting growth companies, but many of those companies were not available in the public markets.  

Recently though, we’ve seen this changing as IPO activity is picking up. Buybacks are not the same force they were. And some of the biggest private-market names may be getting ready to come public at very big valuations. 

Is that the end of the bull market? 

Probably not. At least not by itself. 

But historically, the later stages of bull markets do not always feel scary in real time. In fact, they can feel awesome!  

The stories are exciting. 

The companies are impressive.  

The crowd is getting louder. 

The confidence builds up.  

The last lap of a race is often the fastest one. 

Josh Brown, American columnist and commentator on CNBC, recently made a comparison that stuck with me. Maybe this is not 1999. Maybe it looks more like 1966. Here are a few of his key points, paraphrased: 

In the early 1960s, space captured America’s imagination. Sputnik had shocked the country. President Kennedy committed the United States to landing a man on the moon. Then, in 1962, the Communications Satellite Act helped create COMSAT, a public company focused on satellite communications.

When COMSAT went public in 1964, investors could not get enough of it. It was space. It was technology. It was the future. What was not to like?

But COMSAT was not the exact top. Buyers still had room to make money. That is important. The speculative signal did not mean everything ended the next day. It meant the market had developed a serious appetite for the theme. And once Wall Street saw that appetite, more supply followed.

Pretty soon, all kinds of companies wanted to sound like the future too. Some added “tronics” or “space” to their names. Some had real businesses. Some were probably stretching the truth more than a little. But investors were excited, and excitement has a way of lowering standards.

That is how these cycles usually work. They begin with something real. 

Railroads changed transportation. Radio changed communication. The internet changed commerce. Artificial intelligence is changing productivity. Space commercialization may very well change the world.  

The problem is not between real and fake innovation. The problem is determining how much of that future is already reflected in today’s price. 

So where does that leave us with SpaceX?  

This is not a small startup asking investors to fund an idea. It is already one of the most significant private companies ever created. SpaceX reportedly generated about $18.7 billion of revenue during 2025. Yet despite the scale, they still posted a net loss of roughly $4.9 billion. In fact, the first quarter of 2026 alone reported a loss around $4 billion. Starlink appears to be the real profit engine, while the space and AI pieces are absorbing huge amounts of capital. 

To be fair, that is not unusual for businesses prior to going public. Many successful companies reached public markets before they became consistently profitable.  

But at the size of SpaceX? 

That’s the part that feels almost unheard of. Because we are not talking about investors funding a small venture-backed software company burning cash to grow. We are talking about one of the largest companies in the world asking investors to fund a story that still requires massive future demand to show up. 

That is speculation. Maybe intelligent speculation. Maybe even speculation that works for a while. But still speculation.  

A lot of this depends on demand for space-based connectivity, satellite services, Starship, orbital infrastructure, and who knows what else becoming far larger than it is today. The market is not just paying for what SpaceX is. It is paying for what SpaceX might become. 

Then there is the AI angle. 

SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company or a satellite company. The company is now deeply tied to artificial intelligence too. The prospectus reportedly describes a massive AI opportunity, including the idea of putting data centers into orbit. Add in Elon Musk’s connections to Tesla, and it is not hard to imagine investors beginning to think about some kind of future partnership or integration there as well. 

Maybe some of those connections become meaningful. Maybe they do not. I am not predicting a merger. But markets do not always wait for facts. Sometimes they start pricing in possibilities, especially when the same person sits at the center of multiple companies, multiple narratives, and multiple trillion-dollar dreams. 

So where do I land? 

I do not think SpaceX marks the end of the bull market. COMSAT did not mark the exact top in the 1960s either. 

What it may signal is something else.  

Investors appear increasingly willing to fund ambitious stories at ambitious prices. That does not mean they are wrong. In fact, they may ultimately be proven right. 

But it does suggest that optimism is abundant. 

The question I keep coming back to is not whether we are in a bubble. 

The better question is whether the supply and demand balance is starting to shift. 

For years, investors wanted access to the best growth stories for private companies. If those companies begin entering public markets in larger numbers, scarcity fades. And when scarcity fades, prices do not always rise as easily. 

That does not mean investors should run for the hills. 

It simply means we should stay awake and remain disciplined. More supply, more enthusiasm, and more uncertainty are not usually the ingredients of a low-risk environment. 

SpaceX may be a phenomenal company. It may change the world and multiple industries. The next few years may bring incredible innovation. I believe all of that can be true. 

But great stories can still get crowded. They can still be overpriced.  

And bull markets usually feel best right before they start demanding a little more humility from everyone. 

So what do you think about SpaceX?  

• A. Bullish – it’s going to change the world?  
• B. Bearish – wouldn’t touch it with a 10-foot pole?  
• C. Neutral – too early to tell?